Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Did the Pirates deadline deals make them better?

As has become customary since Neal Huntington took over as the Pirates GM, today's trade deadline was an active one in Pittsburgh. After being buyers for the first time in nearly two decades last season, the Pirates were once again in a position to seek upgrades to the major league team. As of this writing, the Pirates were three games back of the Reds in the NL Central and tied for the NL Wild Card lead with the Atlanta Braves. What was tricky about this deadline for the Pirates was striking a balance between upgrading the team right now for the stretch run, while avoiding giving up top prospects that are expected to help the team contend for many years to come. Huntington made it clear he was unwilling to give up top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon and most observers got the impression that Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Luis Heredia and Alen Hanson were also off the table.

So what were the Pirates able to do? The Pirates acquired LHP Wandy Rodriguez, OF Travis Snider, 1B Gaby Sanchez and RHP Chad Qualls for the major league squad. The Pirates also acquired minor league reliever Kyle Kaminska in the Sanchez deal and received cash in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. On the flip side, the Pirates gave up RHP Brad Lincoln, OF Gorkys Hernandez, INF Casey McGehee and minor leaguers Robbie Grossman, Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. Additionally, the Pirates gave up their recently-won competitive balance draft pick in the Sanchez deal and included cash in the deal for Qualls. Finally, the Pirates designated Drew Sutton for assignment.

That's a lot to digest, but a clear pattern is discernible. Huntington tried to upgrade the major league roster, while keeping his farm system mostly intact. He also focused on acquiring pieces with several years of control, rather than short-term rentals. Huntington called the prices for rentals "prohibitive" and was unwilling to give up much of value to acquire one of those pieces. He felt the prices for rentals had gone up this year, despite the fact that the new CBA eliminated draft pick compensation for players who are traded mid-season. One reason for that is the implementation of the new Wild Card spot. Since more spots are available, more teams feel they are still in it and, therefore, there's a limited trade market that develops. That demand drives up the prices.

It is clear that the Pirates upgraded to some extent. Snider has good pop and won't hurt you on defense. He's likely to struggle some with strikeouts, but showed good patience in the minors. He's been up and down from the majors for a few years in Toronto, but is still only 24. His profile is somewhat similar to Pedro Alvarez, who is a year older than Snider and is just coming into his own at the major league level. Hopefully hitting coach Greg Ritchie can work his magic with Snider in the same way he's turned Pedro's season (and possibly career) around. Snider's acquisition pushes Alex Presley to the bench, a clear upgrade over Gorkys Hernandez.

The move also pushes Garrett Jones to first base in a platoon with newly acquired Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez has really struggled this year after being an All-Star for the Marlins just a year ago. Sanchez was presumably pressing after nearly losing his job to Albert Pujols this offseason. Hopefully, a change of scenery will do him good. Regardless, he's had pretty good platoon splits and should at least be a bench upgrade over McGehee who had a couple decent weeks with the bat and surprisingly good defense at first, but overall struggled to gain any traction.

Rather than DFA McGehee, Huntington swung a last-minute deal to flip him to the Yankees for reliever Chad Qualls. This was a bit puzzling since Qualls has had a poor season and Huntington included $225,000 in cash in the deal; however, Qualls has had decent numbers against righties and might serve as a decent late-inning righty specialist. He will take the spot of Brad Lincoln who was shipped out in the Snider deal.

The most visible upgrade was Huntington's first strike this year. Houston Ace Wandy Rodriguez was acquired for a trio of mid-level prospects. Houston is covering a portion of his contract as part of the deal. Rodriguez slides into the three spot in the rotation and pushes Correia into long-relief and spot-starting duties. Correia requested a trade, but Huntington did not find a suitable deal at the deadline. Correia still has the chance to be a solid swing man if he can adjust to the routine of bullpen duty and stays stretched out enough to spot-start during a brutal upcoming stretch of 20 games without an off-day.

Overall, the Pirates moves will seem unimpressive to some, but they should certainly upgrade the team. Their rivals in the NL Central (the Reds and Cardinals) did not do much to upgrade at the deadline outside of Cincinnati acquiring relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton. Remember, the Pirates can still make trades in August as well, as long as the player passes through waivers. There are a number of waiver-trade candidates this season, including SS Stephen Drew, OF Alfonso Soriano and P Joe Blanton. Activity in August may be higher this year as teams start to drop out of contention.

Huntington managed to upgrade the team, while not sacrificing the future. None of the team's top 6 prospects were traded and the guys he acquired retain several years of control. The only questionable deal involved bringing in Chad Qualls, but it was an exchange of players ready to be designated for assignment. Pittsburgh had an opening in the bullpen with Lincoln being traded and the Yankees needed corner infield depth with Alex Rodriguez on the DL. It may not have been the kind of all-in approach that some folks were looking for, but there's no reason this team can't compete for the playoffs as constructed right now. Before the moves, the team was on pace for 92 wins and the team is clearly better on paper than it was a day ago.

Monday, July 30, 2012

What should the Pirates do with Correia?

Kevin Correia has been a lot of things for the Pittsburgh Pirates over the past season and two-thirds. He went from veteran innings-eater to temporary ace to All-Star. Prolonged struggles after the break last year and the A.J. Burnett acquisition in the spring meant that he was potentially becoming little more than rotation depth. After some early-season rough patches this year, he settled in as a solid back-end starter who kept his team in the game. It was a mild surprise he stuck in the rotation over Brad Lincoln when Jeff Karstens got healthy, but it was no surprise to anyone following this team that he was eventually bumped to the bullpen when GM Neal Huntington acquired Houston ace Wandy Rodriguez via trade. Now, he sports a new title: malcontent.

Certainly, Kevin Correia has every right to be disappointed about his move to the pen, but since it's the right move for this team and since it provides rotation depth with the promise of spot-starts during a brutal stretch of games without a breather in August, you'd hope that he would eventually move past it and work hard to help this team make the playoffs. After all, isn't that why you play the game: to win? Isn't the goal to find an opportunity to make the playoffs and fight for a spot in the World Series? Perhaps not for everyone. Correia is a free agent after this year and he knows the demotion to the pen will likely decrease his market value. He would rather start for a non-contender than be the swing man for a contender because he wants other teams to think of him as an effective starting option once his contract expires. To that end, he has requested a trade from the Pirates.

So, given all of that, what should the Pirates do with their discontented pitcher? Well, the best-case scenario at this point would be to include him in a trade for a major-league player who's going to help the team this year. Despite trading away some of our rotation depth by including Rudy Owens in the Wandy Rodriguez deal, we still have Jeff Locke in AAA, plus Brad Lincoln in the major league bullpen. If it came to that, I'd prefer to give Locke a shot since Lincoln has been lights-out in the bullpen and has shown the ability to succeed in late-inning pressure situations.

Beyond that scenario, I'd keep Correia as depth and hope his attitude improves. He has the potential to be a good long man (though he struggled mightily in his first bullpen appearance yesterday) and, as previously mentioned, the Pirates have a lot of games in August without an off-day, so spot-starts are a real possibility. It's just not likely that the Pirates will be able to get anything of equivalent value for Correia on the market since he's a back-of-the-rotation starter whose contract expires at the end of the season. If the choice is between getting a Grade C prospect in a trade or keeping Correia, I'd definitely keep him. If Correia's attitude gets worse, though, it may force Huntington's hand.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Should the Pirates trade Hanrahan?

In the offseason, the hot rumor surrounding the Pirates involved closer Joel Hanrahan. Many in the industry thought Hanrahan would be moved sometime this season because he was about to become cost prohibitive for the low-budget Buccos. Hanrahan is making a whopping $4.1 million dollars in his second year of arbitration. He still has another year of team control, but as he's on pace for another 40-save season, his price tag will likely be way above $5 million. That's an awful lot of money to pay a reliever, especially when you've got solid in-house options to replace him (Grilli, Lincoln). Plus, GM Neal Huntington has done a masterful job assembling bullpens the last few years, so there's no reason to think he can't find one or two additional options on the open market.

Still, with the Pirates in contention, Huntington has hinted that he prefers to keep his All-Star closer for the stretch run. That seemed to quiet the trade talk until Tom Singer innocently mentioned a couple of days ago that he heard that Hanrahan might be able to net the Pirates two major league bats. This set off a firestorm of chatter on the internet about whether this meant Huntington was shopping Hanrahan and if they thought the big flamethrower should or should not be traded.

Here's my take: Huntington is likely not shopping his closer, but is reluctant to pay for Hanrahan beyond this year so is keeping an open mind about the situation and weighing his options. It's clear the Pirates would like to add one more bat before the trade deadline next Tuesday and it's possible Hanrahan could allow the Pirates to do so without giving up the farm, so to speak. It certainly helps that both Jason Grilli and Brad Lincoln have emerged as potential replacements for Hanrahan. That was clearly on display Saturday night in Houston when Lincoln pitched a scoreless eighth and Grilli followed with a clean ninth to secure a close win on a day Hanrahan was unavailable. Grilli put up All-Star worthy numbers in the first half, has a mid-90s fastball and a wicked slider. Lincoln's got similar velocity with a devastating curve and has a relief ERA barely over a half a run. Plus, he has looked stellar in pressure situations.

I would absolutely be open to the idea of trading Hanrahan, especially for a bat that was under team control through next season. In fact, if the front office wants to get a piece that's more than just a rental, they may need to shed some payroll. Including Hanrahan in such a trade could kill two birds with one stone. Obviously, Hanrahan is a very valuable commodity and could be moved in the offseason, so the deal would have to be significant; but in the right trade, I think it makes perfect sense for Huntington to trade The Hammer for an impact bat.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Should McKenry get more playing time?

Last night, Michael McKenry helped spark an amazing comeback win for the Bucs. He went 3-4 with a double, a key home run, scoring twice and collecting two RBI. The home run was his ninth in only 138 plate appearances. For the season, he's hitting .267/.341/.567 and has a 1.4 WAR.

By contrast, starting catcher Rod Barajas has struggled at the plate, posting a .205/.280/.362 slash line. He has 19 RBI in 236 plate appearances, three less than McKenry in nearly a hundred more PAs. Barajas has managed eight homers of his own, but sports an uninspiring -0.3 WAR. His defense, supposedly his strong suit, hasn't been much better. He has five passed balls and has only thrown out four of the 59 runners who have attempted to steal off of him. Granted, some of the blame has to be put on the pitchers, but that's an awful ratio.

So, should McKenry get more playing time? By all accounts, Barajas has handled the pitchers well and he is at least partially responsible for A.J. Burnett's renewed success. Barajas is also likely to catch the newest member of the rotation Wandy Rodriguez for awhile, as his facility with Spanish should help with communication and ease Wandy's transition to a new team. So, really we'd be talking about catching a maximum of three out of every five days. That would mean basically flip-flopping roles for the two catchers, as McKenry generally starts a couple of times a week anyway to keep Barajas fresh.

At this point, I would definitely be in favor of riding the hot bat and seeing what McKenry can do. His defense hasn't been great either, but I think both of these catchers have the confidence of the starters and McKenry seems to have generally improved on offense. He's made terrific strides for a guy who was by no means guaranteed a roster spot heading into Spring Training. Maybe all those offseason sessions with Clint Hurdle have really payed off.

Friday, July 27, 2012

How good has A.J. Burnett been?

Last night was all about Starling Marte. How could it not have been? The hotly anticipated debut of the Pirates' top position prospect got started with a bang as Marte deposited the first pitch he saw into the left field bleachers. No one would therefore blame you if you failed to notice that A.J. Burnett had another tremendous start for the Bucs, pitching 7.1 strong innings, giving up only two runs, walking one batter and striking out five en route to his 12th victory of the season.

Indeed, Burnett has been a steadying force in the rotation and has consistently pitched deep into ballgames. In his 18 starts, he's pitched at least six innings 14 times and at least seven innings on eight separate occasions. He has a very solid 3.52 ERA and a similarly strong 3.49 xFIP. That's a good omen for continued success. Part of his success stems from his wicked curveball that he can use as an out-pitch. His K/9 rate is a healthy 7.36, while he's only walking 2.74 batters per nine innings. His 1.8 WAR is already higher than each of his last two full seasons with the Yankees, who are paying the majority of Burnett's contract that runs through next season.

It's very possible that by season's end, Burnett will have a WAR exceeding 3.0, which would make it his most valuable season, statistically, since he helped the New York Yankees win the 2009 World Series. I sure like the sound of that. Throw in his off-the-field influence on James McDonald and the rest of the pitching staff, and you've got an incredibly valuable asset.

Who will join the Marte Partay?

You should have been there Thursday night. No, not in Houston to attend the Pirates' handling of the lowly Astros. You should have been online as the Twitterverse exploded in raucous support of our newest Bucco. Jon Anderson of McEffect coined the phrase and every Pirates fan immediately wanted to join the #MartePartay. It was even trending in Pittsburgh, along with the more traditional (but far less fun) "Starling Marte".

And the hero of our story did not disappoint. Swinging at the first pitch he saw from Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel, Marte hit a bomb to left for his first big league home run. He later added a single to cap a 2-4 night, which had folks in Pittsburgh recalling the similarly successful debut of MVP front-runner Andrew McCutchen. Marte obviously plays with a lot of energy and excitement and that's just what the Pirates need at the top of their lineup. Though he still has doubters, Marte flashes a unique skill set that has had Pirates fans in a tizzy since Spring Training. After seeing Marte perform on Thursday, it's hard not to get caught up in the excitement.

The Root Sports broadcast had plenty of shots of Marte: replays of the home run, shots of him learning the ways of the Zoltan from Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen and even snapshots of him smiling and chatting with his new teammates in the dugout. There was one Root Sports shot, however, that stood out to me above all others, and Marte was nowhere to be seen. It was a glimpse of the starters smiling and chatting together in the dugout, while Kevin Correia moped quietly on the bench behind them. It was a bit of a shocker, actually. In the midst of Marte's spectacular debut and lots of excitement over the other newcomer Wandy Rodriguez, there was Correia darkly brooding alone in the corner of the dugout while his team was popping roundtrippers like candy.

Now, it's no surprise that Kevin Correia would be bummed about being taken out of the rotation, especially after a nice win on Wednesday capped a six-game winning streak for the big righty. But the image was so jarring it reminded me that this Pirates team was undergoing a lot of change and that change might not be over.

It's no secret that the Pirates have been searching for a bat to add to their lineup, and while many sports analysts were quick to say that maybe they had found that bat in Marte, Neal Huntington was probably still making calls between innings to see what's out there. John Perrotto mentioned earlier in the day that the Pirates had checked in on Cleveland outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Jerry Crasnick suggested that the Pirates were looking to flip an obviously disappointed Correia for a useful part. Beyond that, though, things have been eerily quiet in the Pirates rumor mill since the Rodriguez trade. Still, with the trade deadline just over four days away, the question remains: who will join the Marte Partay?

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Should the Pirates seek bench help?

The Pirates' front office has had a flurry of activity the last couple of days. Two days ago, the Pirates fortified their already above-average rotation by trading for Wandy Rodriguez. Then, yesterday we got word that the Pirates' top position prospect Starling Marte was being recalled in time for their Thursday night game against the Astros. That gives the Pirates a potential fixture at the top of their lineup. The Rodriguez trade will bump a starter from the rotation (likely Kevin Correia) and that should deepen an already stellar bullpen. In fact, it could allow the Pirates to trade somebody like Jared Hughes or Brad Lincoln in order to acquire more hitting.

But what of the Pirates' bench? Before the Marte call-up, the Pirates had a bench of Drew Sutton, Jordy Mercer, Gorkys Hernandez, Michael McKenry and Josh Harrison. That's nothing to write home about. There are a couple decent defensive replacements in there (notably Hernandez), but outside of McKenry's occasional power it's about as weak-hitting a bench you could construct.

Now, with the Marte addition, Alex Presley will join the bench and one of Sutton, Mercer or Hernandez will be sent down. Still, that move doesn't do much to improve the Pirates' bench. It is very possible that the Pirates are still trying to acquire another starting outfielder to add pop and depth to the lineup. That would certainly help the bench as Garrett Jones and Casey McGehee would presumably move into a platoon at first base. There are a lot of buyer and few sellers, though, so the acquisition cost for one of those bats could prove prohibitive. I highly doubt Neal Huntington will want to give up one of his top-six prospects, so his remaining trade chips are mid-tier guys like Kyle McPherson, Gregory Polanco and Justin Wilson.

One area the Pirates could target instead is the bench. Acquiring complementary pieces like Reed Johnson of the Cubs or Marco Scutaro of the Rockies could add real depth for a Pirates playoff run. The acquisition cost for these players would be much smaller as well. They could give up a Grade C Prospect and probably not lose much more than organizational depth. This type of a deal could be made with a fellow contender, too. The Red Sox, for example, have a glut of outfielders and could look to move one of Ryan Kalish, Ryan Sweeney or Cody Ross. Indeed the Pirates are thought to have asked about them and have scouted the Red Sox heavily this summer.

I still think Neal Huntington could have something big in the works. Just imagine plugging Hunter Pence or Billy Butler into the lineup. But if Chase Headley, Justin Upton and the rest become a pipe dream, Huntington would do well to strengthen and deepen the bench. It could be done at a reasonable cost and could really make the difference down the stretch.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Can Soriano help the Pirates defensively?

With Starling Marte reportedly on his way to join the big league club, the Pirates' need at the top of the lineup seems to be filled for now. They could still use a corner outfielder with pop, though, particularly from the right side. One name you hear bandied about is Cubs LF Alfonso Soriano. Soriano is having one of his finest offensive seasons in years, posting a .274/.324/.503 line with 19 HR and 58 RBI. He has a WAR of 2.8 so far, more than twice his full-season WAR a year ago.

There have been two knocks on Soriano, though, that have made him less than desirable as a trade target: his defense and his contract. The latter seems like it would be a significant deterrent to the Pirates and other small market teams. Soriano is owed about $6 million for the remainder of the season and then a whopping $18 million each of the next two years. That's an incredible amount of money, but the Cubs are probably resigned to the fact they'll have to cover a huge portion of his contract in order to move him.

Soriano's defense in the outfield has annually been a sore spot. He's always had a cannon of an arm, so he's a deterrent to runners, but he often misjudged balls and would inexplicably hop before catching a high fly ball, leading to a few awkward misplays. He has decent range, though, and really seems to have turned a corner defensively this year. He's got a UZR of 10.7 and an astonishingly high 20.6 UZR/150. That puts him third in all of baseball. It's really an incredible turnaround and much credit is due Dale Sveum's staff in Chicago, particularly outfielders coach Dave McKay. Still, advanced metrics for defense continue to be a work in progress; so, how does Soriano do in the eye-test? Fox Sports reporter Jon Paul Morosi notes that a scout said Soriano was playing "at least average-and maybe even above average" defensive in left field. That's certainly better than what we've been getting from the likes of Drew Sutton, Garrett Jones and Josh Harrison. I don't know what the acquisition cost for Soriano would be, but if the Pirates could get the Cubs to cover most of Soriano's contract and give up only a pair of fringe prospects (akin to the Ichiro deal), I'd be inclined to take a chance.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Who won the Wandy Rodriguez trade?

Every time there's a major trade in baseball, there's a rush to determine who won and who lost. Rarely does anyone consider that, at least on the surface, a trade appears to be fair to both parties. Admittedly there are a lot more buyers than sellers at this trade deadline, so it would be easy to assume the sellers will get the better end of the deals. Naturally, that's not always the case. In this instance, I think both teams got what they wanted and I think both teams got a fair deal.

The Pirates get a legitimate middle of the rotation starter without having to give up a top-six prospect. We saw just a day ago where the Tigers gave up their top pitching prospect in a deal to acquire a middle of the rotation starter and a decent second basemen. The fact that the Pirates could get a guy like Rodriguez who is under team control through at least 2013 and possibly through 2014 without giving up the likes of Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon is a win for this Pirates team. Huntington has indicated that he'd like to upgrade the team without giving up pitchers Cole, Taillon and Luis Heredia as well as outfielder Starling Marte and Josh Bell and infielder Alen Hanson. So far, so good.

The Pirates are also receiving cash in the deal. Per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the Astros will pay all but $1.7 million this year, $8.5 million (of $13 million) in 2013 and, if Rodriguez exercises his option, $7.5 million (of $13 million) in 2014. The remaining salary is pretty reasonable for the Pirates and is close to on par with what they are paying A.J. Burnett. The money the Astros are kicking in is important as it helps balance out the value of the prospects forfeited and it helps keep the Pirates' payroll at a reasonable level over the next couple of years.

From the Astros perspective, they got a nice haul of decent prospects: outfielder Robbie Grossman and left-handed pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. Before the 2012 season, Baseball America had Grossman ranked as the Pirates' eighth best prospect, with Cain and Owens ranked 13 and 16 respectively. All of them are legitimate prospects, just not high-ceiling ones. Grossman was the Pirates' minor league player of the year in 2011 and was likely the centerpiece of the deal. As noted in this blog, he is a speedy outfielder with excellent on-base skills. He profiles as a bit of a tweener, though, as his defense probably won't allow him to stick in center field and he doesn't generate the kind of power you'd like to see in a corner bat. Cain, who like Grossman is a Texas native who signed out of high school instead of playing for the University of Texas, is a big lefty who throws in the low-90s but is still developing his breaking stuff. He profiles as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. Owens, likewise, has a ceiling as a mid-rotation guy, but is more refined and could be ready to step into the Astros' rotation later this season. All-in-all, not a bad group of talent for an expensive starting pitcher in his 30s.

It's always tough to evaluate these types of trades on the spot, but I think it was a fair trade for both teams. Wandy Rodriguez is a classic change-of-scenery guy who was pitching for a losing team in a hitters park. PNC Park is a solid park for lefty pitchers and being part of a pennant race should help focus Rodriguez. Hurdle seemed to indicate also that Ray Searage and his staff may have seen a few things on tape that could help Rodriguez. We'll find out soon enough as Rodriguez set to make his next start against his former team this weekend.

Could the Pirates trade their draft pick?

History was made yesterday as part of the trade that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from the Marlins to the Tigers. In that deal, the teams exchanged a pair of draft picks. That was the first trade of draft picks in Major League Baseball history.

One of the unique things about the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is an annual lottery for small-market and low-revenue teams. This lottery involves six draft picks immediately following the first round of the amateur draft and six draft picks immediately following the second round. The odds of winning a pick are based on the team's previous year's record. In this year's draft, the Pirates got the second pick in the compensation round following the first round of the draft. Under the new CBA rules, this pick is able to be traded during the season before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.

The Pirates' pick would carry considerable value, but there's no telling exactly what that value would be. There's no history of trading picks, so the market hasn't established for picks yet. The trade yesterday involved exchanging picks in order to sweeten the pot for the Tigers in case Anibal Sanchez does not sign an extension and becomes a two-month rental. It's probably easier to gauge the difference in value between picks rather than the value of a pick in exchange for talent on the market.

Neal Huntington has said he is not looking to trade his team's pick, but is willing to if he feels another team meets the internal value the Pirates have set on it. He acknowledges, however, that he's not really sure how the industry values the pick at present. There are two reasons the team might be willing to trade their pick. The first is that it could mean the Pirates can keep one of their current minor league prospects rather than include them in a trade. Huntington is proud of his farm system and is reluctant to part with guys the team has been developing. The second reason is that the Pirates already have two first round picks next year because they were unable to sign Mark Appel by this year's signing deadline. That might mean the Pirates are more willing to move the pick than they would be in a year where they only have one first round pick.

Whatever the Pirates decide to do (and I do think they need to do something), it will be interesting to see if more of these picks will be traded and what value they will have. It's just one more thing to spice up this already enticing trade deadline.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Is Headley a good fit for the Pirates?

Buster Olney and Jon Heyman today confirmed the Pirates' continued interest in Padres third baseman Chase Headley. Olney mentions that the Padres are asking for a significant package of prospects for Headley. It's obvious why the Pirates would have interest. Headley's had a very good season, posting a line of .268/.361/.425 with 11 HR and 50 RBI. Headley has always been an underrated base stealer and he has now reached double-digit steals for four consecutive seasons. His WAR so far this year is a very good 3.6. So, why wouldn't the Pirates want him?

Well, there are a few reasons a Headley trade might not make sense. Headley is in his second year of arbitration eligibility. He was a Super-Two player, meaning he qualifies for a total of four years of arbitration. With two plus years of control, Headley's trade value is very high and a trade will likely require a top prospect from the acquiring team. In the Pirates' case, that likely means parting with either Jameson Taillon or Starling Marte. Based on Neal Huntington's recent comments, that seems like something he's unlikely to do.

The other problem is that Headley is a third basemen. Third basemen are highly coveted at this year's deadline, driving up the potential price tag. Furthermore, the Pirates already have a third basemen in Pedro Alvarez. When the Headley rumors initially started, Alvarez was in one of his prodigious slumps, but recently he has found some consistency and is a regular source of power in the Pirates lineup. Alvarez is also doing well defensively this year at third, and he has yet to make a start at another position.

So, why not move Headley? He has made plenty of starts in the OF. The problem is, he's a below-average outfielder, but an excellent third basemen. This year, he has an outstanding 6.1 UZR at third base. In 2009, he earned a -7.4 UZR in 982.1 innings in left field. The year before, his outfield UZR was -9.5. Does that sound like somebody you'd like to plug in the Pirates outfield, especially given the defensive struggles the Pirates have had recently in the OF corners?

If the Pirates did trade for Headley, they would have to play him at third base. That's the only way they could get full value out of him. That would mean a long-term move to first for Alvarez, who would also lose some of his value because of the move. The Pirates defense at first has been surprisingly good this year and a work-in-progress Alvarez during a pennant race seems like a bad idea. As much as I like Headley as a player and as much as I think getting him out of PETCO Park could only increase his value, he just doesn't seem to be a quality fit for the Pirates.

What will be the inscription on Bonds' HOF plaque?

While watching the touching and inspirational speech that Vicki Santo gave on Sunday in honor of her husband and newest Hall of Fame inductee Ron Santo, something struck me. This was not a speech about statistics or league leaders or even early baseball influences. This was a speech about a man, a very special man who did special things while enduring extraordinary challenges. This was a speech about Ron's character, his charitable nature and his fight to make things better. It was one of the most moving things I've ever heard.

It is worth noting, too, that Santo's HOF plaque inscription also mentions his incredible fight against diabetes and the way he positively inspired others. That brings up an interesting question: what will the HOF do when known steroid users like Barry Bonds are eventually inducted? Bonds is eligible for the first time next year. Though it's unlikely he'll make it in on the first ballot, most people think he'll eventually get in, if only because he already had put up Hall-worthy numbers by the time he juiced. I've often wondered how the HOF would handle the controversial slugger, though. Will the inscription on his plaque mention the steroid controversy? Will some mention be made of the questionable legitimacy of his numbers? I've often thought that a subtle way the Hall could make a statement would be to put him in a Pirates cap on his plaque. In other words, say that the clean, skinny Bonds that was a two-time MVP with the Pirates is the player being honored, not the hulking, Bay-area Bonds. Truthfully, I doubt folks in Pittsburgh would appreciate that.

I also doubt the Hall of Fame would do anything intentionally embarrassing or insulting. After all, they're inviting this player into their hallowed Hall. I do think, however, it's something that's too big to ignore. I can't imagine Bonds being inducted without some nod to the cloud of suspicion that hung over his later years in San Francisco. Here's one idea of how his plaque might read:

Though he has come to be identified with the "Steroid Era" of baseball, Bonds was considered by many who saw him play to be the greatest hitter of all time. He retired as the all-time leader in walks and home runs, despite considerable controversy over the legitimacy of the latter. Throughout his playing days, he earned an unprecedented seven MVP awards, was a 14-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove Award winner. During his time in Pittsburgh, he helped the Pirates to three consecutive Division Championships and later led his San Francisco Giants to four playoff appearances, including the 2002 World Series.

Buckle up, baseball fans. Over the next few years, we're in for a bumpy ride!

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Which Upton should the Pirates target?

For weeks now, speculation has swirled around the possibility of the Pirates acquiring outfielder Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Upton is a terrific talent having a down year, but his ceiling is similar to Andrew McCutchen's and he is under team control for three more years at a reasonable salary. Acquiring him would cost the Pirates quite a bounty: likely Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, and maybe two others. The Pirates have a real opportunity this year, not just to break the 19-year streak of losing seasons, but to win the division and make the playoffs. However, after spending years building the farm system from the ground up, Neal Huntington will be reluctant to part with such highly regarded prospects that are expected to help the Pirates for years to come.

As a Plan B, so to speak, the Pirates have talked about acquiring a corner outfielder with pop as a rental. This would be a player like Carlos Quentin of San Diego Padres. Since his contract expires at the end of the season, he would likely command a lot less in a trade. The Pirates have been linked to just about every outfield bat that is potentially available. One name that hasn't come up is Justin's brother B.J. Upton. The Rays are still contenders, but might be willing to part with Upton. Like Quentin, Upton's contract expires at season's end and the Rays have mastered the art of continually stocking their farm system while simultaneously playing to win. Already we've heard names like James Shields and Ben Zobrist being kicked around as potential trade chips.

B.J. Upton would require less in a trade than his brother, yet they are having similar seasons. B.J. has posted a line of .252/.310/.392 with nine HR, 36 RBI and 16 SB. Justin's line is .273/.353/.404 with eight HR, 41 RBI and 11 SB. According to Fangraphs, B.J. has a season WAR of 1.1. Justin's, meanwhile, is 1.6. Part of that difference is attributable to defense. B.J. has -3.1 UZR this season, but that's below his career norm and in Pittsburgh he could slide out of CF and over to left, where he would be a good fit. The Pirates could bat him either leadoff or fourth, both of which are spots he's occupied in Tampa Bay's lineup this season.

Like most Pirates fans, I'd obviously prefer to have Justin on my team; but we've heard from several reporters that Pittsburgh does not match up well with Arizona for a potential deal. The Diamondbacks are looking for shortstop or third base help and the Pirates are thin there. Meanwhile, the Rays always covet pitching and that's the strength of the Pirates farm system. A package involving Jeff Locke or Justin Wilson may well entice the Rays who could lose B.J. to free agency after the season. It sounds like Neal Huntington has been inquiring about just about every bat out there, but if he hasn't already, I'd encourage him to ask about one more.

Friday, July 20, 2012

For what am I thankful?

This has been a difficult day. The unspeakable tragedy in Aurora, Colorado has left me utterly distracted, bewildered and devastated. It's easy to see why even my beloved Pirates would be far from my mind. Yet, this tragedy reminds me of what is precious to me. It reminds me to be thankful for my family, my friends, my adorable cats and yes, for baseball. So, it seems like the right time to share about what the Pirates have given me that I'm thankful for.

  • The losing streak- if it's possible to be thankful for such a thing. Each year of the streak has been frustrating and painful. The more I want to give up on this franchise, the more I find myself rooting for them to win. The more the major league team struggles, the more time and energy I invest in learning about the farm system and all of the talent on its way up the pipeline. Without the losing streak, I would not have this blog, and because of the losing streak, the winning tastes all that much sweeter.
  • Wagner, Clemente, Stargell and Andy Van Slyke- On the day the Willie Stargell stamp is released, I'm reminded of the rich history of this franchise. I'm reminded of the legend of The Flying Dutchman. I'm reminded of the pride and generosity of the game's greatest right fielder. I'm reminded of Pops and the We Are Fam-a-lee Pirates. After all, that's what we call my dad in my family. Most of all, I'm reminded of Andy Van Slyke. I'm reminded of my childhood and watching him play in total awe. I'm reminded of 1990 and 1991 and, yes 1992. I'm reminded of him sitting, head down, in the outfield grass that fateful day that Sid slid. I feel his pain, his frustration and his longing for something better. That image has been a source of inspiration for me. It shows how much he cared. How deeply losing hurt. He was an athlete, a competitor, an all-time-great Pirate.
  • PNC Park- Truly, there's not a better ballpark on the planet. What's more, it showcases a beautiful city, rich with tradition and pride. When the park opened in 2001, my dad and I bought 20-game packages. I would not give that time at the park with my Pops back for anything in the world.
  • Andrew McCutchen- I don't think there's anything that kid can't do. Seriously, in my opinion, he's the best player in the world. I say that as a fan. I have never been so excited to have someone on my team. Maybe Bonds for awhile, but I never felt like he cared. Not like this ballplayer. I wear his jersey number on my T-shirt with pride.
  • Clint Hurdle- Talk about the right leader for the right team at the right time. I know that the players go out there and play, but I swear to you his boundless enthusiasm and optimism rubs off on this team. He is an impressive man. Sure, he sometimes pinch-hits Gorkys Hernandez to lead off an inning in a close game or uses Drew Sutton as a defensive replacement, but man he's a pleasure to have around.
  • Winning- These past two seasons have done exactly what Hurdle has worked for: re-bonding a city with a baseball team. That means so much to me and to the City of Pittsburgh. You know, someone pointed out to me recently that nobody is really talking about the streak these days. They're talking about the playoffs. I like the sound of that.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Should the Pirates upgrade at short?

Earlier today we heard that the Pirates were one of at least three teams to inquire about shortstop Stephen Drew of the Diamondbacks (Fox Sports Link). That report was later refuted by ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter Link), but it begs the question: do the Pirates need an upgrade at short?

It's not an overstatement to say that Pirates shortstops have been atrocious offensively this season. Clint Barmes has been in an endless slump and is hitting a dismal .205/.229/.292. Overall, Pirates shortstops have a combined .515 OPS this year, worst in the majors. The problem with Stephen Drew is that he doesn't really represent any kind of offensive upgrade. He missed nearly a year with an ankle injury and has hit .192/.246/.250 since his return. Furthermore, Barmes' fielding has been good this year with a 5.4 UZR, meaning a replacement would have to be good enough to counter Barmes' defensive value.

There just aren't a lot of available trade options at short, either. Marco Scutaro might be a mild offensive improvement, but his defense has been average at best and much of his time has come at second base. Jimmy Rollins would be an improvement. He sports a 2.5 WAR and is a solid defender. His hitting would be an improvement as well, though his line of .258/.314/.417 is far below his career average. The big stumbling block with Rollins would be his contract, as he signed a hefty 3-yr/$33 million contract to re-join the Phillies this offseason. That's a lot of money for the small-market Pirates to pay an aging shortstop.

I think most Pirates fans would agree that the team could use a boost at short, but there just aren't a lot of good options right now. If you trade Barmes, you have to either rely on Jordy Mercer or Chase D'Arnaud next year or overpay for a mediocre free agent like with Barmes this year. I'm afraid to say it, but Barmes, with his quality defense, might be the most sensible option.

One possibility I'd consider: see if Toronto is willing to sell and inquire about Yunel Escobar. Toronto is only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they are in the basement of the AL East and have had a slew of bad injuries. Escobar has been a terrific defender this year, posting an impressive 7.2 UZR and, though his offensive numbers are down, his .249/.294/.335 line represents a clear upgrade over Barmes. His contract is similar to that of Barmes, so somebody would likely need to be moved in the offseason if Barmes could not be traded at the deadline or in August if he clears waivers.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Is Neil Walker the NL's best second baseman?

Coming into today's game with the Rockies, Neil walker trailed only one NL second basement in WAR (according to Fangraphs): Aaron Hill. Walker's 3.0 WAR was just barely edged by Hill's 3.1. Walker was leading all NL second sackers with a .370 OBP and was second in OPS with a .799 mark.

And over the last two weeks, the competition is not even close. Walker's 14-day WAR is an astronomical 1.1, which dwarfs runner-up Logan Forsythe's 0.4. In fact the only player in the NL he trails over that period is, you guessed it, Andrew McCutchen. He's certainly been hitting well as witnessed by his 17-game hitting streak entering the day; but his plate patience is also improving. His 15.6% walk rate is tied for the lead with Dan Uggla. His OBP for the period is .578. That's 142 points higher than his next-closest competitor. What about power numbers? Well, Walker's slugging percentage is .789 over the past two weeks. Runner-up Rickie Weeks is 221 point behind.

All this is being done with improving defense and solid base running. Remember, this is a guy who was drafted as a catcher, groomed as a third basemen and has been learning second base on the fly the past couple of years at the major league level. Some people raised there eyebrows when Walker was nominated for a Gold Glove after last season. His stats were top-notch, but advanced metrics rated him as a negative defender. That's no longer the case. Walker's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) is a positive 2.0 this season.

There's no question Andrew McCutchen has been the Pirates' MVP this year, but with Walker hitting this well, the Pirates have a great one-two punch in their lineup. Walker is not the clear top second basemen in the league, but nobody is. A look at this year's All-Star roster (one that excluded both Walker and Hill) demonstrates that. One thing is for certain: no NL second basemen is on the same meteoric trajectory and that can only be good news for the Pirates.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Could Alex Presley be the X-Factor for the Pirates?

After making a bit of a splash as a rookie last year, Alex Presley has struggled immensely this season. He got off to a poor start after beginning the season as the opening day left fielder and eventually was demoted to AAA. He did well during his time in the minors turning in a .301/.402/.616 line and hitting five home runs in only 73 at-bats. His success did not quite translate, however, after a call-up and then Presley landed on the 7-day DL with concussion-like symptoms. Yesterday, Presley was recalled from his rehab assignment and was immediately inserted into the leadoff spot in the lineup, which has been a revolving door this year.

Despite his struggles, Presley's return made me breathe a sigh of relief. Anyone who has watched the outfield defense of Drew Sutton, Garrett Jones and Josh Harrison will understand why. Though Presley has struggled at the plate, he has played solid defense and has displayed improved base running ability. He has a season WAR of 0.7 according to Fangraphs, but the calculation shows him at 4.1 in fielding and 1.4 in base running. If he was hitting at the level he did last year, his WAR would be approximately 1.76. By comparison, an outfielder on the trading block like Carlos Quentin (whose value comes almost exclusively from his bat) has a season WAR of 1.4. Now, I'm not saying that Presley is likely to be more valuable than Quentin the rest of the season, but defense and base running do matter. If Presley began hitting even close to what he did last season, he would be a nice upgrade over what's already in the Pirates outfield.

Don't believe me? Let's look at the value of Drew Sutton and Garrett Jones. Sutton has a season WAR of -0.1. His fielding value is -3.8. Jones has a season WAR of 0.6, similar to that of Presley's, but his defensive value is -1.2. It is unlikely that Jones' offense will improve significantly over the second half and his defensive value is already higher than his career average. A slight bump in Presley's offensive value would make him the clear choice.

Now, I have already advocated for the promotion of Starling Marte and the acquisition of a corner bat like Quentin, but truthfully we don't know how Marte will do when he's called up or what Neal Huntington will be able to do on the trade front.What we do know is that Presley should be starting in the outfield right now. Also, if Marte is called up, Presley could be a good platoon partner for him, keeping the young Dominican away from tough right-handers. There's no way of knowing if Presley will improve with the bat down the stretch, but if he does, he could represent a key piece in the Pirates' march toward the playoffs.

Monday, July 16, 2012

Can Starling Marte make a second-half impact?

Bucco fans have been clamoring for it for weeks. Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review heard from a front-office member that "It's time." Still, the question remains: when will Starling Marte be promoted? Perhaps the more important question for the Pirates as they approach the trade deadline in contention for a playoff spot is what kind of impact is Marte likely to have once he's called up?

The most obvious and immediate impact Marte could have is in the field. Lately, the Bucs have been running out a lineup that includes Drew Sutton and Garrett Jones in the corner outfield spots. Sutton, a utility infielder by trade, has looked lost in the outfield. He makes errors, he takes bad routes to balls and he gives his skipper enough indigestion that he's frequently replaced by defensive-minded Gorkys Herndandez when the Pirates are clinging to a lead late in games. The same is true of Garrett Jones, who looks much more comfortable at first base than trolling the outfield grass. Marte is a world-class defender, perhaps second only to Hernandez among outfield defenders in the organization. Many in the front office believe he will eventually force Andrew McCutchen to one of the corners. That kind of impact cannot be ignored.

But Marte would not be called up because of his defense. If he wouldn't make an impact with the bat, the Pirates are better off using Hernandez and Alex Presley, who is set to come off the 7-day DL in the near future. No, Marte is being considered for a call-up because of his potential as an impact bat. Marte has had some ups and downs in his first season at AAA, but overall he sports a .286/.349/.490 line with 38 extra-base hits and 18 stolen bases. He flashes good speed, improving power and excellent defense. There are some trouble spots, though. Marte is still a work-in-progress on the bases. His 18 stolen bases come with 12 caught stealing attempts. He also strikes out a lot and draws few walks. He has an 80/26 K/BB ratio this season and lack of plate patience has been a criticism of his game for a number of years.

Despite his mediocre on-base skills, Marte would likely be a nice spark-plug at the top of the Pirates lineup. Presley and Tabata struggled there early this season and it's been a revolving door ever since. Drew Sutton has manned the position lately, but he's not a terribly good fit there and is a poor bet to continue hitting enough to be an everyday player going forward. Of course, the Pirates could go a different route and trade for a player like Shane Victorino of the Phillies, but the truth is the Pirates could really use both.

In an ideal world, the Pirates would call up Marte and he would add a lot of energy and improved productivity. They would then trade for another corner outfielder to add a little pop and solid defense to the mix. That would allow them to put Garrett Jones back at first in a platoon with Casey McGehee and make Drew Sutton a reserve to strengthen their bench. Imagine this kind of a lineup:

Marte, LF
Walker, 2B
McCutchen, CF
Quentin, RF
Jones/McGehee, 1B
Alvarez, 3B
Barajas/McKenry, C
Barmes, SS

Despite the recent success of the current group offensively, I'm inclined to think that this offense is closer to the group that was last in the majors in offense in April/May than the one that led the majors in June. A trade for a corner bat would certainly make a big difference, but I've got to think that Marte is part of the equation as well. You don't want to call him up too soon and hurt his development, but you've also got to roll the dice on a guy showing the ability to contribute right now to the contending Pirates and potentially improve them in all facets of the game. Don't worry fans, I think the time is nigh.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Why do they pitch to McCutchen?

Last night, I flipped on MLB Network just in time for the Pirates highlights. After watching Andrew McCutchen's majestic home run with two outs on an 0-2 pitch from Marco Estrada, analyst Joe Magrane joined a familiar chorus: why do they pitch to that guy? We've heard it again and again from National TV analysts to local sports writers to McCutchen's own manager, Clint Hurdle. Frankly, it's baffling.

McCutchen leads the majors in hitting, is third in OBP and second in OPS. Here's the kicker: he leads the majors in Slugging Percentage. That's right, he's out-slugging Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun and David Ortiz. He's out-slugging Mark Trumbo, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista...well, I could go on indefinitely. Yet, pitchers have not wised up. He's been intentionally walked only 7 times this year. By contrast, Joey Votto's been intentionally walked 13 times, same with Ortiz. In fact, if there's one area for criticism in McCutchen's game this year, it's that his walk rate is rather low at 8.5%. He's taken only 30 walks all season. Most of his good OBP comes from his hits. That's what makes this trend of pitching to McCutchen all the more puzzling.

And it's not just that pitchers are trying to pitch around him and make a mistake. They seem to be choosing to challenge him. Take this quote from the aforementioned Marco Estrada, for example:

"There was one pitch I regret, and that was the pitch to McCutchen," Estrada said. "I went away from our game plan and decided to throw a fastball away. And I shook it off, which I shouldn't have done, and I got hurt for it. I can't be doing stuff like that. I've got to stick to the game plan and try to make the pitches." 

 When asked after the game why he thought they kept pitching to McCutchen, here's what Clint Hurdle had to say:

“Some of it, I just think they think they can get him out,” Hurdle said. “The guy that day thinks he can get him out. That’s about all I got. They think they can get him out.”

 McCutchen stands all of 5'10" and weighs 185lbs. He's a little guy compared to most big league players. He was primarily a leadoff man his first two years in the majors, known more for his speed than his power. I bet if you polled 25 pitchers at random, not one of them would be able to correctly identify who leads the majors in Slugging Percentage. Heck, poll a hundred. Despite his incredible year, nobody seems to be conscious of the damage he can do with one swing of the bat. There was a fair amount of snickering about McCutchen's presence in this year's Home Run Derby, but there shouldn't have been. It's understandable why it might come as a surprise to folks, but Andrew McCutchen is tied for second in the National League in home runs with 20.

McCutchen is a pretty soft-spoken guy on a small-market club, so it's no wonder it's taken time for him to get the attention he deserves from the national media. His fellow hitters in the division have begun to notice him, too. Reds All-Star Jay Bruce says he's "on the very short list right now of the best players in baseball." Ryan Braun called him the first-half MVP. Sooner or later you've got to figure the pitchers in the league will start to notice (and respect) what McCutchen is doing and pitch to him differently. Until then, Pirates fans, enjoy the show!

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Is Kevin Correia better than his statistics?

For over a month now, Pirates fans have viewed each of Kevin Correia's starts as, potentially, his last. Yet, he will take the mound for the Buccos tonight in Milwaukee and, very likely, every fifth day for weeks afterward. Correia has never fared well in the eye test. He is big and lumbering and totally lacking in elite "stuff". So, there must be something hidden in his numbers that keeps the Pirates running him out there, right?

Well, no, not really. You see, beyond his lackluster appeal to casual fans, those who dabble in advanced metrics dislike Correia even more. To them, Correia is nothing more than a replacement-level player. His 0.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is representative of this. So, too, is his poor 3.4 K/9. Think his 4.34 ERA is a bit high? Try his 5.24 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Sabermetricians will tell you that even his mediocre play is unsustainable.

Still, the Pirates run him out there. And the world sits and watches and waits for the wheels to come off. Some folks make excuses for the Pirates noting that Charlie Morton is on the DL or that he'll be gone once one of the lefthanders at AAA is ready or that they're just biding their time until a trade is made. The truth is none of that holds water. The Pirates already have a viable alternative in the majors who has shown the ability, at times, to be a productive starter at a level beyond what Correia is capable: Brad Lincoln.

No, the Pirates leave him out there for a reason, but it's not because of any of those things. Correia keeps them in games. He's a fighter. He gives up hits, but keeps his walks to a minimum with a 2.7 BB/9 rate. Furthermore, he has a ridiculously high 74% LOB rate (Left On Base). Unsustainable, right? For his career, Correia has stranded 71.8% of runners he lets on. Think about that. Seven out of ten times, if he lets a runner on, he strands them on base. That's astounding and it defies conventional thought.

Let's look at a recent start against the Detroit Tigers and ace Justin Verlander. Correia struggled out of the gate and gave up two quick runs in the first. Fans wrote the Pirates off right then, especially with Verlander on the mound; but Correia bore down and managed to keep the Tigers off the board for the rest of his six innings. The Pirates eventually lost that game, but everyone in the clubhouse admired the tenacity shown by Correia. Weeks later when asked what was the Pirates most impressive game of the year, infielder Casey McGehee cited that loss to Detroit rather than one of their many comeback wins. That says something.

In a recent radio interview, Rob Neyer of SBNation said that maybe it's time for us to start thinking of Correia as a statistical outlier. Take a moment and think about that. A national writer committed to the study of advanced metrics thinks Correia could defy statistical logic. That's good enough for me...well, for now at least. I would be happy to see the Pirates upgrade their rotation for a stretch run, but until then, I'd keep Lincoln in the bullpen where he's been most effective and ride Correia as my fifth starter until the wheels come off.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Who is the real Robbie Grossman?

Last season, Robbie Grossman took the minor leagues by storm. He was the first minor league player to score at least 100 runs and walk at least 100 times in a season since Nick Swisher did it back in 2004. He was named the Pirates minor league player of the year and followed it up by earning a spot in the Rising Stars game of the talent-rich Arizona Fall League (AFL). His patient approach has earned raves from Keith Law of ESPN and he began showing up in some of the preseason prospect rankings lists.

His future Pirates career didn't always look so rosy, though. After the Pirates took Grossman in the 6th round of the 2008 draft and gave him an over-slot bonus of $1 million, Grossman struggled in his first two full seasons in the minors. He did not hit for a high average, did not show the same patient approach and displayed almost no power.

In 2011, his breakout year, he was repeating hi-A for the second full season. Naturally, when a breakout comes while a player is repeating a level, it creates a fair number of skeptics. That's why Grossman's performance in the AFL and beyond was so important. Shortly after the Rising Stars game, Grossman broke his hamate bone and was forced to shut it down. He was ready for spring training, but that kind of injury usually saps a players power for awhile. What it shouldn't sap, however, is his ability to get on base. Yet, 2012 began poorly. His struggles culminated in an undisclosed incident that landed Grossman a week-long suspension.

Then, suddenly, everything changed. Grossman returned from his suspension on a tear and hasn't stopped. Since his suspension in June, he's hit .327/.462/.535 in just over 100 at-bats and has reached base in 24 straight games. It has been a remarkable turnaround and has Pirates fans once again penciling Grossman into their 2014 lineups.

Still, the question remains: who is the real Robbie Grossman? The one that struggled for more than half of his time in the minors, or the one who has been on a tear since early June and has looked like last year's minor league player of the year? Though this kind of Jekyll and Hyde performance can be maddening, it's not terribly unusual for a prospect, especially one drafted out of high school. Remember when Jameson Taillon had a month to forget earlier this year? It's part of the development process. It's part of making adjustments. Grossman is only 22. Those first couple of years in the system his body was still developing. He was also often playing against college kids 3 or 4 years older than him. And the adjustment to AA can be difficult. Pedro Alvarez has had trouble making quick adjustments at every level of his professional career. Now, he's hitting bombs into the Allegheny.

There's every reason to be optimistic about Robbie Grossman. Sure, he's a bit of a "tweener", meaning he probably won't stick in center field, but doesn't flash the kind of power you'd look for in a corner bat; but, that doesn't mean he can't be a quality everyday player in the big leagues. He displays very advanced on-base skills, has some speed and has developing power. Those are qualities any team would want in a player. In fact, don't be surprised if you hear his name come up more than once before the July 31st trading deadline...but that's a topic for another day.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Can Alen Hanson make Pirates fans forget Sano?

We all remember the saga, the uncertainty and, ultimately, the disappointment. Miguel Sano, the best hitting prospect to come out of Latin America in years was ever-so-close to being a Pirate. For a long time, it was reported that the Pirates were the only team to have made Sano a firm offer. Even after a lengthy age-verification process through MLB and accusations of Pirates tampering, Neal Huntington and his crew seemed poised to land the prized prospect.

Then, it all fell apart. Fed up with the Pirates' refusal to meet Sano's asking price, Sano's agent signed him up with the Minnesota Twins, much to the chagrin of Huntington and to the vast disappointment of Pirates Nation. There was nothing to do but move on.

So, move on they did. Weeks later, the Pirates signed another promising but less-highly-touted Latin American prospect in Alen Hanson. Hanson was a toolsy shortstop that the Pirates brass thought had the chance to become a five-tool prospect. But he was much less polished than Sano and didn't flash the same power potential. Hanson had only a mediocre showing in his first year of pro ball in America. He started hot in the GCL, but struggled mightily after being promoted to short-season ball. He hit a meager .200/.273/.200 in a short stint for the State College Spikes.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Pirates aggressively promoted him to lo-A ball to start 2012 and Hanson's response was swift and surprising. In a breakout akin to that of San Francisco's Brandon Belt a couple years back, Hanson has immediately put himself on the prospect map. To date, he's hit .332/.393/.590 flashing surprising power for someone with his 5'11" 152lb frame.

The biggest question now seems not to be whether or not he'll make it to the majors, but rather, if he'll be able to stick at SS. Some evaluators project an eventual move to 2B, but ESPN's Keith Law has repeatedly insisted that he has the tools to stay at SS for the long haul. After not making a dent on any of the preseason prospect rankings, his name is showing up everywhere these days. Keith Law ranks him 48th on his midseason Top 50 list and Baseball America has him ranked 40th. He's a switch-hitter, he's hitting for power and has good enough speed to have led the GCL in triples last year and was second in stolen bases.

A switch-hitting shortstop with speed and power? Sounds too good to be true doesn't it? And that's exactly why the Pirates front office wants you to know the name Alen Hanson. Sano is still considered the better prospect (ranked 26th by Keith Law and 22nd by Baseball America), but nobody's star is rising faster then Hanson's. In a few years, the Pirates brass hope that Hanson's name will hang on the lips of every Pirates fan the way Andrew McCutchen's does today. If that day ever comes, people in Pittsburgh may one day be heard to say, "Sano who?"

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Should the Pirates trade Brad Lincoln?

With the trade deadline approaching, I though I'd take a look at one of the more intriguing trade chips the Pirates have: Brad Lincoln. Some people might be surprised that Lincoln would carry significant value in a trade, but he's under control for five more years at a low cost and has shown the ability to be effective as either a starter or a reliever.

Lincoln has been used mostly in relief this year and has posted impressive numbers. He has a 2.98 ERA (most of the damage coming from his five starts), a 52:13 K/BB ratio and has also finished five games, leading some to believe he could be developed into an effective closer. This year, his K-rate has climbed to more than a strikeout per inning.

And it's not just his numbers; Pirates fans have witnessed the fires he's managed to put out for the team, and he has the flexibility of getting a key strikeout with runners on or pitching three scoreless innings to pick up a struggling starter.

That is exactly why teams such as the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres have expressed interest in the right-hander. The Pirates are known to have inquired about Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin and Chase Headley of the Padres as they seek for help at an infield or outfield corner.

So, it begs the question: should the Pirates trade Lincoln? In general, I think not. The Pirates do have a lot of starting depth in AAA (Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson) and they do have Bryan Morris ready to step into a relief role should a big league arm be moved. So, why not move him for a valuable piece? Well, in short, because he's controllable at a low cost and because the Pirates would probably be better off moving a guy like Joel Hanrahan who only has one more year of control and is due a hefty raise from his current $4.1 million salary. This front office has shown no stomach for pricey relievers, especially since they've done such a good job of finding gems on the free-agent market (see Grilli, Cruz) the past couple years.

That said, I would make one exception. I would move Lincoln in a package for Justin Upton. Upton is 24, has three years left on his contract and has a ceiling similar to that of Andrew McCutchen. A package for Upton will almost certainly include top outfield prospect Starling Marte. Beyond that, the Snakes would want a top pitching prospect and a third major-league-ready prospect. That means Jameson Taillon and someone like Jeff Locke who is ready to contribute in the majors today. That's a steep price to pay, but one that the Pirates would likely consider given the skill set that Upton would bring to the team. Now, if Lincoln were to replace Taillon in the deal (even if it meant adding another B-prospect to the deal), I think it would be worth it. Getting Upton would be a huge splash for the Pirates (well worth moving a valuable piece like Lincoln) and managing to keep both Cole and Taillon in the system would be big. So, even though I'd be extremely reluctant to trade Lincoln, I wouldn't think twice about it in the case of a potential Upton deal.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Could Derrek Lee cost the Pirates Appel?

I've been searching for some time for a good topic for my first post here, and then I got caught up in the Mark Appel speculation. Will he sign? Won't he? Will agent Scott Boras try to use him as some kind of example to buck the new system put in place by the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement?

To really conjecture properly, you need to understand how this new system works. I don't pretend to be an expert on this topic (I don't think any of us really do; perhaps Jim Callis?), but essentially each team is given a slot amount for all picks in the first 10 rounds of the Rule 4 (amateur) draft. A team may exceed the slot for an individual pick, but not the collective slots through round 10. If you go over the slot by a small amount, you pay hefty fines; if you go over by any significant amount, you forfeit draft picks. If you fail to sign one of those picks, you lose the slot money.

So, long gone are the days of $5 million bonuses for the Josh Bells or $8 million bonuses for the Gerrit Coles. Naturally, this makes it tough for a small-market team to invest more heavily in amateur talent and stock their farm systems with high-end prospects by going over-slot in later rounds of the draft.

That brings us to Mark Appel. Appel was expected to go first overall to the Astros, but they instead balked at his bonus demands and took high-upside shortstop Carlos Correa. Other teams, scared off by both bonus demands and over-slot penalties, passed on Appel as well. He slid all the way to the Pirates at eighth overall. The Pirates, however, do not have a terribly large slotting pool for their 11 selections through round 10. The slot recommendation for the pick is around $2.9 million, but Appel was said to be seeking a bonus in the neighborhood of $6 million. The Pirates, like other teams, went conservative with high school seniors in the latter half of the first 10 rounds to free up slot money, but as of this writing, Jim Callis of Baseball America projects the Pirates could only spend about $3.84 million on Appel, assuming the rest of their unsigned early-round picks sign at slot value and they're willing to pay significant fines (but not give up a draft pick). That is well below Appel's expectations and it could cause him to rebuff the Pirates' offer and return to Stanford for his senior year. Indeed, there was been speculation recently (by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in particular) that it was the direction Appel was leaning.

So, how does all of this relate to Derrek Lee? Well, as you may recall, the Pirates offered Derrek Lee arbitration in the offseason. Lee declined, so the Pirates were due a supplemental draft pick in this year's draft, assuming Lee signed a major-league deal with another team. He did not. Had Lee signed and had the Pirates been granted an extra supplemental round pick, it would have added about another million dollars or so to the pool. The Pirates could have used that pick on a safe, below-slot sign and applied a portion of it to a deal with Appel to sweeten the pot.

Now, I have no idea whether $4.25 million would have been any more appealing to Appel than $3.84 million, but it might have enabled the Pirates to offer him a deal that would have placed his bonus in the top three in the draft class. That could have been a meaningful "win" for Appel and his agent Scott Boras. Obviously, Appel could still decide to sign with the Pirates, but if he doesn't, I'll always wonder if Derrek Lee made the difference.