Saturday, September 15, 2012

Shouldn't there be accountability?

I'm hoping this post is a day too late. The Pirates defeated the Chicago Cubs today to snap a seven-game losing streak and help preserve their playoff hopes and their chances of breaking a streak of 19-straight losing seasons. But the game was a microcosm of the last two seasons: build up a lead and let it steadily slip away. Luckily, Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan was able to stop the bleeding by striking out Dave Sappelt with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth. That does not obscure the fact, however, that the Pirates have been on an historically bad downward slide that is made worse by a similar precipitous free-fall a year ago.

If things continue to go poorly, someone needs to be held accountable. I like Clint Hurdles enthusiasm and his endless reserves of positive energy, but his in-game decision-making has been questionable at best. His Spring Training mantra that hung on the lips of every player who survived last season's implosion seems to have fallen on deaf ears. These Pirates have not yet learned how to "Finish". At some point, management has to notice.

Speaking of management, Neal Huntington's record continues to be spotty. I loved his plan of re-stocking the farm system through trades and being aggressive in the draft, but his ability to judge talent has come into question. Just look at his free agent signings: Clint Barmes, Rod Barajas, Erik Bedard, Lyle Overbay, Matt Diaz, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Vazquez and so on. At some point you have to say he has vision, but not execution.

This year's trade deadline, too, was baffling to many observers. The Pirates had a real chance in a weakened NL Central to make the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. Their deadline acquisitions, though, were underwhelming and looked toward the future, not the present. Sure, guys like Travis Snider and Gaby Sanchez are likely upgrades over Alex Presley and Casey McGehee, but not considerably. Huntington liked their talent and thought they could be had at a modest acquisition cost and (most importantly to him) they were under team control for many years. Look, I get it. The economics of baseball are tough. But at some point you have to put your foot down, forget about next year, and start investing in right now. When the Pirates were playing well earlier this summer, average attendance was up over 2,500 a night. The Pirates have also announced a ticket increase next year after many years stagnancy. That's fine, but then you've got to remember that the priority is the team on the field in the major leagues each day. Otherwise, you can keep saying "next year" until that's the year after McCutchen's contract expires, or more likely, the year after Huntington is dismissed.

Maybe this team was playing over their heads for four months. That was certainly the case last year. But last year's team didn't have A.J. Burnett or Wandy Rodriguez or a mashing Pedro Alvarez. It can't always be the same excuse. I know they're trying. I know they haven't given up, but many fans are. There needs to be some accountability here, even if it's painful. Too much is at stake for the city, the fans, the team. I hope I'm wrong about all of this. I hope there's enough time to go on a run and be competitive in the playoff race down to the last series. I hope they do break their streak of 19 losing seasons. I just hope that if those things don't happen, someone stands up and tells us why.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Are the Pirates done?

Stick a fork in them. That seemed to be the prevailing sentiment after another loss to the Reds last night extended the Pirates losing streak to five straight. ESPN even displayed an eerie graphic that highlighted the Pirates struggles of late. It showed how the Pirates fared in the 20 games following their 19-inning marathons in both 2011 and 2012. Staring back at us from the screen were identical 5-15 records. Deja vu indeed.

That's only part of the story, though. Sure, the Pirates have been struggling since the All-Star break and the comparisons to last year are undeniable. I highlighted some of the similarities last month. Still, there are differences that could indicate that the Pirates are not quite done. That 19-inning fiasco happened weeks earlier last year and the result was so devastating, the Pirates never regained their footing. This year, the Pirates won that game, but were forced to take a late flight to the west coast and battle a surging San Diego Padres team that swept them. This was at the end of a brutal stretch of 20 straight games without an off-day. "Clay Pigeon-Gate" aside, it was going to take some time for the team to recover from essentially playing 21 games in 20 days.

The team's offense has been woeful of late, but part of that can be attributed to the loss of Neil Walker. This team is ill-equipped to go without one of their key offensive cogs for any stretch of time. The rotation has also been healthier than last year at this time, but getting Jeff Karstens back on the mound will go a long way toward maintaining some consistency. Most importantly, the team is only 2.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. That should help the team maintain focus and composure, as opposed to last year when their slide took them out of the playoff hunt almost immediately.

Despite the uncanny similarities between last fall and this one, this team still has time to turn it around. They are close enough to the playoffs (and ending their stretch of 19-straight losing seasons) that a brief spate of wins followed by steady play might do the trick. I'm certainly not as optimistic about achieving either goal as I was a month ago, but I do see this team as different from last year's and I do think they have enough veterans on this team to dig their feet into the dirt and change the momentum. The team can take a big step in that direction tonight in Cincinnati with their ace A.J. Burnett on the mound.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Can Pirates fans do more to help?

There's been a lot of criticism lately by members of the Pittsburgh media regarding attendance at Pirates games. With the Pirates in the thick of the playoff hunt in September for the first time in 20 years, it's easy to see why certain members of the media would be concerned about the somewhat lackluster attendance at PNC Park in recent weeks. TV viewership is up, though, and weekend attendance has been strong.

I experienced the latter this past weekend when I attended the Cubs-Pirates contest Saturday night. The announced attendance exceeded 32,000 and the place was packed with folks of all ages. Here's the catch: it was fireworks night. For those who don't know, Pittsburghers love fireworks. They will go to great lengths to see them. The Pirates have frequently sold out their fireworks nights, even when the team was well out of playoff contention and in the midst of their epic streak of losing seasons.

So, to some degree, it could be considered a mild surprise that the game wasn't totally sold out. Furthermore, the size of the crowd is not the only determining factor when considering fan support. How many of those folks were there to see the fireworks? How many came as part of a bachelor party? How many came because they literally couldn't think of anything else to do? I do understand that those groups comprise parts of many fan bases, but in this case it seemed like they made up the majority of those in attendance. There was a moment late in the game that painfully illustrated this for me.

It was the top of the 8th inning with two on and two outs. The game was tied. Pirates reliever Jason Grilli was on the mound. You may remember that I recently wrote about Grilli being the linchpin in the Pirates bullpen. His season has, in many ways, been historically great. In what was a critical moment, in an important game, in the middle of a playoff race, the fans at PNC Park figured it was an appropriate time to start the wave. Now, I'm not just talking about a few distracted kids. I'm talking about 25,000+ "fans" enthusiastically standing and whooping for about eight straight minutes; meanwhile on the field, their best reliever was trying to concentrate on ending the inning and getting the team to their at-bats with the game still tied. Now, I'm not trying to say people can't do the wave, but there is a time and a place for it and this was not it.

Grilli began fidgeting on the mound and stepped off the rubber several times as he tried to maintain composure. The wave would come around to behind home plate just about every time Grilli was set to pitch. And it kept going. And going. Grilli promptly gave up a single which drove in what turned out to be the game-winning run. Now, the "fans" stopped doing the wave and began booing loudly. Whether they were booing the umpire who called the runner safe on a somewhat close play at home or were booing their erstwhile hero Jason Grilli, I cannot be sure. But it felt wrong. All of it.

Now, Grilli is a professional. He's been in the league a long time and should be able to block out distractions; but in this case, why should he have to? After all, these are his home fans. The batter didn't have to worry so much about it. He had a nice backdrop of the batter's eye in center. But Grilli had it all around him and in front of him. And the fans didn't get it. I actually think some of them were booing not about the ump or about Grilli giving up the hit, but rather booing the fact that their epic wave had died. There was one fan sitting behind me who kept shouting about how exciting the wave was and would yell at his neighbors to join in, castigating those who refused. It was disheartening. The Pirates were 1.5 games out of their first potential playoff spot since I was 12 years old. It was a tie game. A loss would mean handing the series to the lowly Cubs and giving them the chance at an eventual series sweep. And the majority of the 32,000+ at PNC Park were fixated not on the batter, nor the struggling pitcher, nor the potential winning run dancing off of second base. No, they were caught up in the wave. I'm sure they enjoyed the fireworks.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

When will we see Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh?

Tomorrow night, Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Indianapolis Indians in the AAA playoffs. It will be his second start at AAA after breezing through stops in Bradenton and Altoona. It's pretty clear that the Pirates number one prospect is on the rise and his arrival in Pittsburgh is not far off. So, when should we expect to see Gerrit Cole in a Pirates uniform?

Well, the answer is sometime next year, though it's unclear when. The Pirates probably felt he would be ready by the middle of next season, which would be ideal financially as he would be able to avoid Super-Two arbitration status. But Cole's meteoric rise this year had some in the organization wondering whether or not he should be considered for a call-up this season to help the Pirates down the stretch. That's highly unlikely to happen, but it does make one wonder whether or not he'll be given a legitimate shot to make the team out of spring training.

He's certainly got the stuff to compete at the highest level right now. He's got an upper-90s fastball that holds its velocity deep into his starts a la Justin Verlander. In the Arizona Fall League, he topped out at 102 MPH. He has a plus slider and changeup and has been developing a 2-seam fastball as well.

His stuff has translated well to the field, too. In 13 games with High-A Bradenton, he had a 2.69 ERA, a 9.27 K/9 rate and a 2.82 BB/9 rate. That prompted the Pirates to promote him to AA Altoona where he didn't seem to be bothered by the competition change. In 12 starts there, he posted a 2.90 ERA, a 9.15 K/9 rate and a 3.51 BB/9 rate. His great stuff and remarkable consistency led to a promotion to AAA Indy in advance of their playoffs. His debut was a success with Cole getting the win while giving up three runs in 6.0 innings, walking one and striking out seven.

Next season, the Pirates have A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez under contract. James McDonald will be first-time arbitration eligible and will be tendered a contract. After that, the rotation gets a bit fuzzy. Jeff Karstens will be in his third year of arbitration and the Bucs are likely to tender him a contract, but he'll be due for a hefty raise over the $3.1 million he makes this year, so the Pirates could also consider him a non-tender candidate. Charlie Morton should be back to full health, but will the Pirates want to invest another $2.5 million on a guy who's been erratic and is coming off of a major injury?

That leaves two potential rotation spots up for grabs. Besides Karstens and Morton, there are a ton of AAA pitchers who will get a long look: Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson and Chris Leroux. The Pirates may also want to pursue a starter on the free-agent market. I would not count out Cole, though. Eventually, Baseball America's sixth-ranked midseason prospect will get a shot and unlike so many other young pitchers, he'll probably be up to stay. None of those guys above, including Karstens, will block Cole. When Cole is ready, the future ace will be up. After what we've seen this year, that time is coming sooner rather than later.

Should Brock Holt be in the lineup every day?

When Starling Marte made his debut earlier this year, we discovered two things about relying on rookies at the top of the lineup:

1) They can provide a boost of energy and excitement

and

2) There will be growing pains.

So, given that, does Brock Holt provide this Pirates team with the best chance to win at the top of the lineup? I'll argue the answer is yes.

In a must-win statement game against the Houston Astros (the same Houston Astros who beat the listless Pirates the previous day to extend their losing streak to 4), Brock Holt was the star of the show. Sure, Andrew McCutchen re-took the batting title lead with a four-hit night of his own, but it was the young Holt's four hits that captured the collective imagination of Pirates nation. After weeks of suffering through lineups headed by the likes of Jose Tabata and Alex Presley, this Holt-led offense was humming.

It's no surprise really. Despite a rough outing on Monday, Holt has been rolling all year long. Holt cruised through AA this season posting a .322/.389/.432 line for Altoona; but, that wasn't good enough for the breakout star. Upon his promotion to AAA, he became even hotter...way hotter. In 24 games with Indianapolis, Holt elevated his game to a new level posting an incredible line of .432/.476/.537. Not bad for a guy without much power. He had hitting streaks of 5 games and 10 games in only 24 AAA starts. No one in the organization has been hotter of late.

And that's why he's gotta be playing every day. The team has been struggling to find consistency on offense and Holt may just be the spark plug that this group needs. With Holt setting the table for McCutchen (who's been coming around) and Alvarez (recently named NL Player of the Week), this offense has a real chance to win games for them. Also, when they can get an early lead, it seems to settle the starting pitchers down a bit. Look at Wandy Rodriguez's last two starts as exhibits A and B.

Now, Holt is not well-equipped to play shortstop. He's passable there at best. Until Neil Walker is healthy and in the lineup every day, Holt should be at second base. Every. Day. When Walker is healthy, Holt needs to get some starts at short. Barmes is a nice defensive shortstop, but even with these little spurts of life in his bat, he's a liability at the plate. Use Barmes on days when you've got a pitch-to-contact guy on the mound or as a defensive replacement. We're starting to see that at first base, where Garrett Jones gets the bulk of the at-bats, but Gaby Sanchez often spells him in the latter innings to provide better defense. One thing is for certain, as long as Holt is hitting, he's a must-start. He hustles, he gets on base, he makes good things happen. That kind of all-in attitude, that kind of passionate play is infectious. And the best part about it is he plays under control. You'll see him have much better at-bats than Barmes or even the aforementioned Starling Marte. We all know that Marte has more upside and is the more likely player to become a fixture in future Pirates lineups, but right now, Holt is the guy I want at the top of the lineup as the Pirates fight for their playoff lives.

Friday, August 31, 2012

Did the Pirates get their "postseason" roster right?

Today was the deadline for teams to add players to their 25-man roster in order for them to be eligible for the playoffs. Obviously, guys on the DL don't count, so there's some leeway here, but basically, what you see is what you get. So, the question is, did the Pirates get it right?

Today the Pirates added Kyle McPherson to their bullpen and Alex Presley to their outfield mix. In corresponding moves, Chase d'Arnaud was optioned to High-A Bradenton and Jeff Clement was outrighted there after clearing waivers. This means Clement was removed from the 40-man roster and would have to be added again before being recalled. The Pirates now have two open spots on their 40-man roster. Sending them to A-ball allows them to be recalled as early as Monday (rather than wait the usual 10 days) since Bradenton's season ends on Sunday.

Early indications were that Jeff Locke would also join the team this weekend as a starter once rosters expanded on September 1. Presumably, others would follow: Justin Wilson, Eric Fryer, etc. So, given what we know, how did the Pirates do? I think the general consensus is OK. Adding Presley makes sense as Jose Tabata is a giant question mark and more still needs to be seen from Starling Marte to be sure he's worth a playoff roster spot. Two of those three will likely be on the roster if the Pirates secure a playoff spot.

The McPherson move is solid, but a little puzzling. McPherson had a scoreless appearance in his first taste of the big-leagues earlier this month. He's a guy that could pitch either out of the bullpen or as a starter down the stretch. He's got nice swing-and-miss stuff and eventually profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Frankly, I'd rather have seen that spot go to Justin Wilson. Presumably, the Pirates feel that they're OK with lefties in the pen now that they've claimed Hinsanori Takahashi off of waivers, but Wilson profiles as a potential late-inning guy with a hard fastball and electric movement. Command has been an issue in the past, but he's looked sharp this year and also had a nice scoreless stint in the majors, striking out the side against the Padres. The other obvious choice would have been Bryan Morris. Folks have been clamoring for his call-up for ages now and he's another hard-throwing bullpen guy who could fill the void left by Brad Lincoln. In other words, a guy who could go multiple innings when needed or come in to put out a fire. He's an excellent strikeout guy and would have been a nice weapon come playoff time.

The other move I would have considered is adding Jeff Locke to the rotation now so he'd be eligible for the playoffs. Teams don't always need a fifth starter come playoff time, but he could also be used out of the pen. He had a couple scoreless appearances out of the pen in the majors earlier this year. I would have advocated dumping Kevin Correia in favor of Locke. Locke's a better pitcher right now and has plenty more upside. He probably profiles as a number four starter in the future. I doubt it will happen, but I'm still holding out hope that the Pirates make this move after they take on the Brewers tonight.

Overall, the Pirates improved their potential playoff roster with their moves today. I think Clement and d'Arnaud were smart call-ups at the time, but neither one of those guys belongs on a playoff roster, even taking into account d'Arnaud's ability as a baserunner. Presley gives the Pirates another outfield option and McPherson could be a nice addition to the pen. I just wish more consideration would have been given to guys like Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris who may actually profile as relievers long-term and who have electric stuff. Correia has kept the team in games this year, but he's nearing the end of his usefulness, especially with so many better potential options still sitting at AAA. Regardless, the focus now needs to turn away from roster construction and on to getting ready for a dogfight for one of the few available playoff spots.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Is Jason Grilli the key to the Pirates 'pen?

13.78

It's one of the most surprising numbers associated with the Pirates bullpen this season. That's the K/9 rate of 35-year-old set-up man Jason Grilli, fourth best among all qualified relievers in MLB. His other numbers are pretty great, too: a 2.20 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a .180 BA against and a 4.41 K/BB ratio. He's been a 1.2 WAR player. By comparison, NL saves leader Joel Hanrahan has a WAR of 0.2.

There's no question Grilli has been a key cog in one of the National League's best bullpens. He has nailed down an 8th-inning role that was in flux for much of last season. The Pirates have lost only one game this season when leading after seven innings, a .984 winning percentage. There's a reason why fans clamor for Grilli to enter the game in any high-leverage situation. It's not a stretch to say he's the best set-up man in the league.

If the Pirates are going to make the playoffs, it's going to be on the back of their bullpen. Look at last night's game against the Cardinals, for example. If you get the game to the bullpen with a lead after six innings, the guys in the 'pen will take care of the rest. The Pirates trail only Cincinnati in terms of bullpen ERA this season. And the key to the pen, the stabilizing factor between the starters and the closer, has been Grilli.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Is Pedro Alvarez having a successful season?

Last night, Pedro Alvarez let loose his prodigious power with two monster home runs. The first was an opposite-field shot that cleared the Northside Notch in the deepest part of the park. Deciding that was not impressive enough, he followed it up with a herculean shot to right-center that went a stunning 469 feet. That mammoth blast was the longest home run by a Pirate in PNC Park history and, with it, Alvarez joined the 25-homer club for the first time in his young career.

Despite the fireworks, Pedro's season has been something of an enigma. It's not an understatement to say he's been one of the streakiest hitters in all of baseball. Alvarez was flat out of the gate only to get hot in mid-June. From there he went on an incredible tear until mid-July, when his production once again fell off a cliff. Recently, though he's been swinging the bat well and his 2-punch statement in an incredibly important game for the Pirates last night has been the pinnacle of his late-season resurgence. What are we to make of his overall season, then?

Well, a dream season for Pedro would be something like a .270 average and 35 homers. A  realistic breakout, then, might look something like a .250 season average and 25 homers. That, of course, is nearly identical to his current season totals. It's hard not to consider that a success. His overall line is .247/.327/.484 with 25 HR, 67 RBI and an impressive isolated power number of .237. The latter number is good for fifth in the National League. He's been a 3.0 WAR player this season according to Fangraphs. That's all fairly impressive and I'm sure the Pirates are happy with the overall production. Sure, the 31.8% K rate is a concern, but he's always going to strike out a lot. Pedro's value will always be judged by his power numbers and his run production and, for the most part, he's been strong in those areas this season. It's also true that the Pirates have played their best baseball when Pedro's been on, so hopefully this recent hot streak will translate into wins for the Bucs as they fight for their first playoff spot in 20 years.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Why are the Pirates so afraid of youth?

It's ironic that a team that has relied so heavily on the youth movement and home-grown talent would suddenly become allergic to rookies. After surprising rookie reliever Jared Hughes and his 48 appearances, the next highest total of any Pirates rookie this season is 30. That mark belongs to the long-forgotten Matt Hague. Sure the rookie position players haven't exactly inspired much confidence. The Bucs just haven't gotten much production out of the likes of Hague, Yamaico Navarro and Gorkys Hernandez. Still, Starling Marte showed real potential before landing on the DL. Plus, AAA is stocked with a bevy of arms ready to contribute at the Big League level.

Pitchers Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson and Kyle McPherson all had impressive, albeit brief, debuts, but they've been relegated mostly to fill-in duty for a game or two at a time. Indianapolis reliever Bryan Morris was called up for a day and didn't even get a sniff of game action. Instead, those major league bullpen spots have been filled by veteran journeymen like Juan Cruz and Chad Qualls. Likewise, the starting rotation has been clogged by Kevin Correia, Wandy Rodriguez and the recently-released Erik Bedard.

But Bedard's release presents a new opportunity to let the youth movement continue. As the veterans fade down the stretch, the opportunity is there for the Pirates to fill Bedard's spot with one of the more exciting AAA options. Wouldn't the rotation look better with a young lefty with hit-and-miss stuff like Jeff Locke than with another stretch of mediocrity by Correia. At the very least, call up Bryan Morris and let him fill a Brad Lincoln-type role if you're dead-set on putting Correia back in the rotation. It's time for this front office to stop thinking veterans are necessarily the solution when there are young, talented arms ready to contribute at Indy. Nothing against Hisanori Takahashi, but couldn't that bullpen role be filled just as easily with Justin Wilson? Their current strategy has them on the outside of the playoff race looking in. There's not much more to lose and a great deal to gain by seeing what kind of spark some of these young arms could provide.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Can Alex Dickerson stop the revolving door at first?

Today, we found out that Pirates farmhand Alex Dickerson was named the Florida State League Player of the Year. In his first full season, he hit .299/.358/.454 for the Bradenton Marauders with 12 HR and 88 RBI. He even added 12 SB for good measure.

Dickerson was the 2011 third round pick of the Pirates. He was considered a Top-50 draft talent, but fell to the third round due to concerns about his back. He has good power to all fields and projects as a potential 30-home run talent in the majors. He's got good plate patience and generally keeps strikeouts to a minimum. He played mostly in the outfield in college, but his lack of range and his injury history led the Pirates to move him to 1B. The former Big Ten Triple Crown winner is valued primarily for his bat, though. His award-winning season with Bradenton follows a nice showing in short-season ball in 2011. There, he managed a .313/.393/.493 line in 150 AB.

The Pirates have struggled to develop hitters of late, especially power hitters. Their revolving door at first base is well-known, too. The Pirates have penciled different names into their opening day lineup for four consecutive years. Since the departure of Adam LaRoche, we've seen the likes of Jeff Clement, Lyle Overbay, Garrett Jones, Steve Pearce, Derrek Lee, Matt Hague, Casey McGehee and Gaby Sanchez. There are a few promising first base prospects in the system (most notably Matt Curry and Jose Osuna), but none have the realistic potential of a guy like Dickerson. Hopefully, in a couple of years, the Pirates will be able to plug Dickerson's name into the lineup on a daily bases.

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Are the PIrates a bad baserunning team?

It seems like every time I tune into the Pirates of late, somebody is making an out on the basepaths. In particular, speedsters Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen have been caught stealing with regularity and Garrett Jones has given a new face to the popular acronym TOOTBLAN (Thrown Out On Base Like A Nincompoop). But, what do the actual statistics tell us?

Well, it's a mixed bag really. Pittsburgh is really bad in the stolen base department. They are last in the NL in steals (56), first in caught stealing (43) and last in stolen base percentage (57%). They are also second in the league in being picked off when there's a stolen base opportunity (1.29%). They're pretty good at taking the extra base (43%), but last in the league in scoring from first on a double (21 times). Remarkably, they are the best in the league in outs on base (30), meaning they don't run into outs much aside from being picked off or caught stealing.

All in all, the Pirates are not as bad on the basepaths as I thought. They are woeful in the stolen base department, and that needs to change; but they aren't making a lot of careless outs beyond that. I feel like I've seen my share of them, but it's likely that the bad ones just stick out in my memory. Plus, you never think about baserunning when the players do what they're supposed to do. Beyond that, the Pirates are pretty good at taking the extra base, tied for fourth in the NL in fact. Hopefully, any missteps the Pirates have made lately are just drops in the bucket. Things better settle down soon, though, as the Pirates need to be firing on all cylinders if they're going to remain in the Wild Card race.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Why should you be happy about the Clement callup?

It's seems odd I would be so happy about this, doesn't it? After all, we're talking about Jeff Clement. The same Jeff Clement that crashed and burned as the Pirates starting first baseman back in 2010. The same Jeff Clement that struggled to stay above the Mendoza line and somehow managed only 12 RBI despite seven home runs. His OBP was .237; his OPS was .605. So, why on earth should I be happy about his call-up?

Well, a few reasons actually. First, he's been really good at AAA this year. He has 16 HR, 57 RBI and sports an .825 OPS. He's also been healthy all season, which is something you could not say at just about any other time in his career. He deserves a shot and could be nice left-handed power option off the bench.

And that's the second reason: he's a left-handed power hitter. Who is he replacing? A light-hitting, right-handed utility player with recent off-the-field problems. I'd much rather be giving Jeff Clement one more shot after he's worked his way back from injuries and disappointments than keeping a guy like Yamaico Navarro who's had no success at all at the major-league level this year and was arrested earlier this season for a DUI.

That brings me to my third and most important reason I love this seemingly insignificant move: it restores my faith in Neal Huntington. OK, so maybe that's a bit over the top; but after seriously bungling the bullpen situation in San Diego, Daniel McCutchen is back in the minors where he belongs and Huntington has now made a move which should improve the bench. Here's something you probably didn't know: until the Clement call-up, the Pirates did not have a left-handed hitter on the bench. None. If you consider Garrett Jones the starter at 1st and Travis Snider the starter in RF, then your bench consists of Gaby Sanchez, Michael McKenry, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and, now, Jeff Clement. The move does lessen the team's defensive flexibility, but Jones can play OF, Harrison can play multiple positions and Mercer can play either middle-infield position. This team really needs to start hitting better and driving the ball and calling up Clement could really help.

Look, I know this move is not going to set the sports world on fire, but it's a shrewd move that should upgrade the Pirates bench. Many of us have been ragging on Huntington for his bullpen construction, so it's only right to applaud a move like this that should be a step toward putting the best 25 guys on the field.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Haven't we been here before?

Recently, Pirates fans have witnessed a 19-inning game, a Daniel McCutchen walkoff loss in extras and Andrew McCutchen go into a late-summer swoon. We've seen the starting pitching struggle, the bats fall silent and now the club is getting swept by bad teams. Sound familiar? It should. All of these things happened last year, too.

After being swept by the San Diego Padres, there was talk anew about whether this team actually had the staying power to compete for a playoff spot. Granted, the fall from grace last year was of epic proportions. A stretch of losing half that bad would be alarming. But even if this club doesn't falter as badly as that, it doesn't look good for their playoff chances. The latest Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report has the Pirates playoff chances down to 27.8%. Their expected win percentage is down to .508.

Suddenly, the rhetoric from this club is changing. Rather than being sorely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs, there's already talk of being happy if they simply break the streak of 19-consecutive losing seasons. Expectations are changing quicker than a Justin Wilson big-league stint. John Perrotto recently asked Clint Hurdle if his team can still get to the postseason. Here was Hurdle's response:

"I have confidence in the men in our clubhouse," he said. "They've gotten this far and if you would have asked back in April if we would be happy with where we are now, the answer would have been yes."

Now, it's true that Hurdle's quote could be taken to mean the club is still fighting and that they are continuing to defy expectations, but this is coming from the mouth of the most over-the-top geyser of positive rhetoric in team history. Hurdle's primary function for this club has been as a motivator. There is rarely a hint of resignation in his voice. Until now. We can only hope that the players latch on to his more inspiring and helpful rhetoric from spring training:...finish.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Why on earth is Bryan Morris still in the minors?

There must be a reason why the Pirates have not added Bryan Morris to their bullpen, right? Maybe he offended someone's mother? Perhaps, he gave Neal Huntington a dirty look? It certainly couldn't be because of his performance at AAA. Morris sports a 2.51 ERA, a 1.128 WHIP and a dazzling 4.56 SO/BB ratio in 75.1 relief innings with Indianapolis. Has he been struggling lately? Not at all. In his last 10 games, Morris has a 2.33 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a 4.0 SO/BB ratio. On the year, he's averaging almost a strikeout per inning. So, why haven't the Pirates called Morris up?

Perhaps, they don't need him? That argument might have stuck earlier this season, but not anymore. Most folks saw him filling a Brad Lincoln-type role: a guy who could go multiple innings or pitch in late-game situations. Once Lincoln was traded, it seemed only a matter of time before Morris was called up. But it hasn't happened. We've seen lesser options like Chad Qualls, Daniel McCutchen and the recently DFA'd Juan Cruz. We've seen all-too-brief stints by future starters Justin Wilson, Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke in the Pirates bullpen; but there's been no sign of Morris, a power arm with a future as a late-game reliever. It's becoming inexplicable.

Morris is a big, strong righthander. He throws in the mid-90s out of the pen, with an upper-80s slider. There was talk of giving him a September call-up last year, but that never materialized either. Instead, the last remaining piece of the Jason Bay trade, has languished in AAA, proving that hitters at that level are no longer much of a challenge. Plus, Morris is on the 40-man roster, so there would be no need to clear a spot to bring him up. I can only hope that by week's end, lesser options like Qualls and McCutchen will give way to young guys with great stuff like Morris and Wilson. You think the Pirates are worried about how rookie pitchers will fare during a playoff race? Take a look at Jared Hughes.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Is Brock Holt the future at SS for the Pirates?

Brock Holt was drafted in the ninth round of the 2009 first year player draft out of Rice. The Pirates gave him a $125,000 bonus and probably thought his ceiling was as a utility infielder. Still, they've pushed him aggressively through the system and now he is thriving in AAA. He's lean and fast and fits the prototypical mold for a lead-off hitter: he gets on base and can steal bases. He has played primarily at short, but also at second, which might be his ideal position. The real question is, does he have what it takes to be a big-league regular?

Holt started the season in AA Altoona and hit .322 with a .389 OBP and 11 SB in 102 games. With Jordy Mercer becoming a fixture on the Pirates bench, Holt was promoted to AAA, where he has hit for a .423/.446/.577 line in his first 13 games. What's particularly remarkable about that is he showed almost no power to speak of in the lower minors. He still only has three homers combined on the season, but that's in addition to 29 doubles and six triples. Besides power, his defense is often cited as a drawback. He doesn't have the defensive skill at short that someone like Mercer has, but he's quick with a decent arm. He's also not a burner, so he needs to improve his reads if he's going to be effective as a basestealer in the majors. Right now he gets caught about as often as he makes it.

There's a lot to like about Holt as a ballplayer though. He's a lifetime .312 hitter in the minors with a terrific .376 OBP. He has been aggressively pushed through the system and has responded at every single level. He has been a mid-season All-Star every single year. Pirates Prospects had him listed as the 32nd best prospect in the system prior to the season and he's listed as having just missed the Top 20 in their post-trade-deadline update. I've heard some folks compare him to current Pirates utility man Josh Harrison, but Harrison had to exceed expectations just to get to the Bigs; Holt can be even better, though perhaps with less positional flexibility. There's no obvious long-term solution at shortstop for the Pirates, so Holt may eventually get his shot. With second base blocked by Neil Walker and Clint Barmes signed for another season, Holt's immediate future is likely as a utility guy, but it would not surprise me at all if he wrested control of the shortstop job for at least part of the year in 2013. Either way, given how successful he's been of late, he's certainly someone to keep an eye on.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

What's up with Cutch?

After a brutal game with lots of missed opportunities, all eyes were fixed firmly on MVP-candidate Andrew McCutchen. With no outs in the ninth and the bases loaded, McCutchen stepped to the plate wearing an 0-4 collar and looking for redemption. Instead of a game-tying base hit, Cutch managed a soft grounder for a forceout. A strikeout by Garrett Jones and another groundout by Josh Harrison ended the game. The Pirates lost to the Cardinals 5-4. Immediately, the questions surfaced: what's up with Cutch?

After some recent struggles, some have speculated that he's been unlucky. After all, his BABIP was pretty unsustainable for most of the season. Others surmised that he is still shaken from the beaning he got in Cincinnati by Aroldis Chapman, which, as the story goes, makes him susceptible to balls down and away. Here's the thing, McCutchen has struggled with pitches down and away all season, especially good sliders. That was true in July when he hit .446 the same as it's true in August when he's "only" hitting .286. Pitchers are simply working him down and away more often and with increasingly positive results. That's why Cutch has been complaining about the strike so often recently. He knows he has trouble getting good wood on those pitches, so he's looking for them to be called balls. And you know what? Sometimes they are called balls. In fact, McCutchen has walked 12 times this month, which is tied for his best monthly total only 18 days into August. Remember earlier this year when we wondered why they still pitched to McCutchen? Well, this is them learning their lesson. Pitch McCutchen hard away, and if you walk him, well at least he didn't beat you.

What McCutchen needs to do is find a way to adjust. He's got to find a way to drive the ball the opposite way and crush mistakes. His OBP is an impressive .420 this month, but it's his slugging that has suffered. He's managed only a .446 rate this month. He's walking, poking singles the other way or buggy-whipping balls over the third baseman; but he's not driving through the ball and generating power. His isolated power is under .200 for the first time since April and he's managed only 5 extra-base hits this month. That's simply not good enough for an MVP. I'm sure he's fatigued; I'm sure he's frustrated; but if this team is going to make the playoffs, he needs to make an adjustment. It's a lot of pressure for a young man, but that's what teams expect from their MVP, let alone the MVP of the league.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Can we expect JMac to get back on track?

Today begins an extremely important series for the Pirates against the division-rival Cardinals. St. Louis begins the day just one game back of the Pirates and the final Wild Card spot. Taking the bump for the Pirates is first-half ace James McDonald. But that makes the Pirates faithful more uneasy than confident. No Pirates starter has struggled as much as JMac since the All-Star break.

The numbers are ugly: an 8.71 ERA, a .321 BA against and 21 walks in 31 innings. Things have gotten so bad that there was some talk of moving the erstwhile ace to the bullpen. Still, the struggles seem more mental than mechanical. McDonald will breeze through a couple of innings before losing concentration and giving up a big hit. Then, things fall apart. It reminds one of the pre-2012 James McDonald: lots of promise, very little consistency.

McDonald addressed this in a recent interview with Pirates Prospects' Kristy Robinson:

“I just got to keep focused throughout the entire start,” McDonald said. “I can’t lose focus. That one pitch might be a game changer. Just really try to keep focused on every pitch one pitch at a time, one batter at a time. Don’t try to get ahead of myself.”

As I mentioned in my recent post discussing the staff's collective issues in August, there are two men that can help JMac right the ship: pitching coach Ray Searage and fellow starter A.J. Burnett. Searage put McDonald through an extra side session recently and focused on rhythm and timing. The hope being that JMac can get into a flow on the mound and not get distracted as easily or thrown off his game. Burnett, in the meantime, called a clubhouse meeting the day before his most recent start to help re-focus the whole team and regain a winning mentality. Burnett pitched a gutsy game yesterday, earning a win and being a stopper for the Pirates, despite not having his best stuff. That kind of performance doesn't look great in the stat books, but it can help motivate a floundering team. JMac was pitching best when he was going back-to-back with Burnett in the rotation. Burnett has become a real mentor for McDonald and and he attributes much of his early-season success to Burnett's influence. Maybe following Burnett's gritty win will help JMac get back to his dominant self. The Pirates could sure use that kind of a boost going into their biggest series of the season. Their 20-year playoff hopes hang in the balance.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Should MLB disqualify Cabrera from batting title?

As of this writing, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen still holds a healthy lead in the NL batting title race. His .359 average is 13 points higher than Melky Cabrera's .346. Still, as McCutchen has realized lately, it's hard to maintain that kind of an average, even when you're seeing the ball well and squaring it up. That's because in order to hit that well, a player usually has to have a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) that is unsustainable over the long haul.

Now, the same would be true of Melky Cabrera, except his average is effectively locked in now that he's been suspended for 50 games for PED (Performance Enhancing Drug) usage. Cabrera admitted he took a banned substance in a statement released today. To qualify for the batting title, a player must have a minimum of 502 at-bats; Cabrera currently has 501. Of course, there's a loophole. MLB can award a player "hitless at-bats" to bring the total to 502. Thus, Melky Cabrera would end the season with a .345652 batting average. The real question is, will Major League Baseball prevent this from happening?

Major League Baseball has not shown much stomach for cracking down on PED users outside of suspensions. In fact, MLB ended up reducing the Manny Ramirez suspension by half when Ramirez sought to be reinstated prior to this season. Think about that. Ramirez retired suddenly when he had a second positive PED test rather than face discipline. Then, he was allowed to come back a year later at half of the suspension because some time had passed. It was Manny's decision to buck the system and retire, rather than face a 100-game ban; yet, he was rewarded by choosing the cowardly path. This leniency was granted to a multiple offender of the program.

MLB should be proud of its drug testing program. It works. It has stamped out a lot of the PED use in the game and those still trying to buck the system get caught eventually. But rather than stand proudly by it, MLB gets embarrassed when stars test positive and back off. Well, this is not the time to back off. Cabrera has put up career numbers this year, winning the MVP of the All-Star game and helping to keep his team in playoff contention. That's impressive, but if it was gained improperly, it should not be celebrated. MLB should take a stand and refuse to allow Cabrera to qualify for the batting title. It would be incredibly embarrassing to allow someone who tested positive during the season to win the title with tainted results. I hope Bud Selig is listening, because this is his legacy.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Are Pirates pitchers having another Dog Days dip?

Last year, the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates were in first place as late as July 25. Then, came the epic collapse, Jerry Meals and all. The face of the Pirates' struggles was the pitching staff. Injuries and inconsistency plagued a staff that had carried the Pirates from pretender to contender and allowed the front office staff to be buyers at the trade deadline for the first time in nearly two decades. The ineffectiveness of that staff during the Dog Days of August made the team pretenders once again.

This year's team has followed a similar pattern. Strong pitching led the team into contention, but struggles on the mound have muddied the waters in August. The Pirates are still clinging to the last Wild Card spot, but they've been losing ground quickly. The starters have struggled collectively since the All-Star break. Only A.J. Burnett has consistently delivered. Erik Bedard has showed some signs of improvement, but has been wildly inconsistent. Jeff Karstens and newcomer Wandy Rodriguez have also struggled to find consistency. Worst of all, first-half ace James McDonald has had a disastrous second half, leading some critics to call for his removal from the rotation. Kevin Correia, relegated to bullpen duty upon the arrival of Rodriguez, has now been inserted into an expanded six-man rotation to take some pressure off of the struggling rotation during a brutal stretch of 20 consecutive games without an off-day in August. That, of course, leaves a hole in the bullpen, meaning the Pirates are forced to keep a long man like Jeff Locke around at the expense of a solid middle-man like impressive rookie Jared Hughes.

Last season, the Pirates pitching staff posted a 4.04 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP overall. During their drudge through August, they managed only a 5.36 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. This season, the results are similarly disconcerting. The staff has an impressive 3.66 ERA on the season, but only a 4.58 ERA in August. There are some encouraging signs, though, unlike last season. Pirates pitchers have posted a 1.18 WHIP this month, as opposed to their 1.26 WHIP on the season. They've also continued to post a nice K/9 rate of 7.81. The real trouble has been home runs. The staff has already allowed 18 HR this season. That's more than they allowed in the entire month of April (13). Instead of stranding runners, they're giving up big longballs in unfortunate situations. So, beneath the surface at least, it seems the staff has been a bit unlucky and could round back into form at any moment.

It's appropriate to be concerned about the rotation, especially after what happened last year; but, this is a more veteran staff and some of the peripheral numbers indicate that things aren't quite as bad as they may seem. I expect Ray Searage, along with clubhouse leader A.J. Burnett, to help right the ship and that we will soon be thinking of this early-August dip as merely a slump. Still, it would be wise for everyone in the Pirates clubhouse to heed the season-long advice of their skipper and get focused on one word: finish.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Should Justin Wilson be in the pen?

Just a few days ago, the Pirates announced that AAA Indianapolis pitcher Justin Wilson would be moved to the bullpen for the rest of the season. The organization stressed that the move would be temporary, as they feel his long-term role will be as a starter. The assumption was that Wilson might be able to help the Pirates out of the pen down the stretch, as he is a lefty with a live arm in a system bereft of major-league-ready lefty options.

Then, the Pirates called up Jeff Locke to serve as a long man/emergency option while Kevin Correia temporarily moved back into the rotation. Wilson was therefore left in the Indy Indians rotation for at least one more start. He responded by pitching eight innings of hitless, runless ball in a rain-shortened no hitter. His final line was 8.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO. Here's the kicker: it wasn't the first time he was part of a no-hitter this year. On April 29 of this year, Wilson pitched 7.1 innings, giving up no hits, no runs, walking two and striking out nine batters. For the season, Wilson is 9-5 with a 3.88 ERA and a 2/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Does that sound like a guy who should be moved to the pen?

Well, let's take a look at why the Pirates want to put Wilson in the pen. Despite his healthy K/BB ratio, he walks a lot of batters. Before the most recent no-hitter, Wilson was walking 4.6 batters per nine innings. That's awfully high, but it's in line with his career averages. Wilson has excellent movement on his pitches, but he hasn't been able to control them with any regularity throughout his minor league career. The move to the pen might not help his control (it hasn't in the past), but it does limit the potential damage. A move to the pen helps Wilson in another way, too. He normally sits in the low 90s with his fastball, but in relief he has been regularly clocked in the upper 90s, sometimes hitting 99 on the gun. That's a tremendous weapon that could help the Pirates bullpen in a pennant race.

Some folks think a permanent move to the pen is in the cards for Wilson as he has shown little progress in harnessing his control. The Pirates front office was even shopping him to other teams at the deadline as a future-closer type. One look at what Aroldis Chapman has done this year and it's easy to see why teams would consider Wilson a legitimate back-of-the-bullpen option despite his wildness. Still, most teams would prefer to give a guy with Wilson's stuff every possible chance at starting. His stuff is good enough that he could eventually become a number 2 starter, but he's so erratic at present that he's looking more like a back-of-the-rotation option. My guess is that he is a future closer in the Carlos Marmol mold. I'm sure that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in Pirates fans, but we're talking about a live arm with great velocity and diabolical movement. I understand why the Pirates want to keep trying him as a starter, but after two seasons of sometimes electric but often erratic pitching at AAA, I'd make the move to the pen permanent.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Do the Pirates have a "left on base" problem?

One thing that gets overlooked about this year's Pirates team is their ability to capitalize on opportunities when presented. Even when they're not hitting terribly well, they're not leaving ducks on the pond, so to speak. On the season the Pirates rank first in the majors in both left on base (totaling each individual player's LOB per game) and team left on base (totaling the number of players left on base at the end of each inning per game). Pirates batters are leaving a total of 12.49 runners on base per game. They're the only team that's under 13. As a team, they leave only 6.11 runners on per game. Cincinnati, by comparison, ranks 16th, leaving 6.82 runners per game. St. Louis ranks last in the majors with 7.45.

Lately, though, the Pirates have been noticeably worse in these categories. They are squandering far too many run-scoring opportunities. Over the last three games, for instance, the Pirates as a team have left an average of nine runners on base per game. That's good for 27th in the majors. Over that same span, Pirates players are leaving 16.33 runners on base per game. That's over four runners worse than their season average. It has to be a concern.

It's also correlating to a similar discrepancy in runners left in scoring position. Over the last three games, the Pirates are leaving four runners in scoring position a game. That puts them in the bottom half of the league, whereas on the season they rank a healthy fifth. Part of what has contributed to the problem is an increase in hitting into double plays. There have been plenty of the rally-killing variety of late, at least a couple of times with the bases loaded and one out.

The Pirates have been remarkably good in this area on the season, but it's really hurt them since the All-Star break and has prevented them from building big leads or mounting late-game comebacks. If the Pirates are going to hold off the Cardinals and make the playoffs, they'll need to maximize their opportunities because they're simply not built to out-slug their division opponents.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

What's the concern with Travis Snider?

Since coming over from the Blue Jays in a deadline deal, Travis Snider has, on the surface, looked pretty good. He's hit .267 with three runs and two RBI in 19 plate appearances. He also has one stolen base, two walks and three strikeouts. Those last two numbers are important as plate discipline in the majors was the primary concern in his major league career to this point.

I think there's another problem lurking just under the surface of those numbers, though. All four of his hits were singles and three of four were pulled to the right side. In fact, a look at his spray chart is fairly alarming. According to Fangraphs, Snider has pulled the ball 54% of the time this year for a .211 average. He's gone to center 34% of the time for a .411 average and he's gone the opposite way only 4 times for a 1.000 average. It shows you that he's quite effective as a hitter when he stays up the middle or drives the ball to the opposite field, but he's become a mostly pull hitter and it has hurt his effectiveness.

In his short Pirates career, Snider has gone the opposite way only once and it resulted in a hit. Most of the time he rolls over and pulls the ball on the ground to the right side. So far, teams have played him pretty straight up, but you can expect that to change if Snider's tendencies don't. If he can no longer poke the ball through a hole on the right side, he's going to be in serious trouble. I'm sure Pittsburgh's hitting coach Gregg Ritchie has been working with Snider to stay through the ball and drive it the other way, but the results have not been there to date. He did noticeably sit out the last couple of games, so hopefully he and Ritchie and Hurdle are working on things.

The bottom line is, if the Pirates are going to contend down the stretch, they need Snider to turn it around. They need him to flash that incredible power potential; they need him to continue to be patient at the plate; and most of all, they need him to start driving the ball up the middle or going with pitches and driving them the other way.

How should Pirates fans feel about Erik Bedard?

Last night, Erik Bedard was brilliant for the Pirates, giving up only two hits in seven scoreless frames while striking out five and walking none. In fact, since the All-Star break, Bedard has been mostly stellar, posting 3 quality starts in four chances and averaging only a run per game over those outings. His other outing was one to forget, though. On July 30, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 4.1 innings on the road against the Cubs.

That's been the pattern for Bedard most of the year: solid for awhile and then some really rough patches. He started off the year strong, but stumbled badly from mid-May to early-July. Given his injury history, many folks feared the worst. And then came this stretch of mostly terrific work. Even in the blowout in Chicago, he looked sharp at times, striking out seven batters in his shortened start. So, what are Pirates fans to make of Bedard? Can he be counted on down the stretch?

Well, let's look at the numbers. On the surface, they're not great. He's got a 6-12 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. I'm always surprised when I see those numbers, though, because I feel that he's pitched better than that this season. That's where advanced metrics fit in. Despite his bloated ERA, he has a much better xFIP of 4.06. He also has a healthy 8.63 K rate, which is right around his career average. His walk rate is a bit high, but overall, he has a decent 1.3 season WAR.

Most importantly, Bedard passes the eye test. He keeps hitters off balance, he knows when and how to pitch inside, and there's great life on his curve. Assuming he can stay healthy, he'll be a valuable pitcher for the Pirates down the stretch. Last year, Bedard reached 20 starts and 100 innings for the first time since he was an Oriole back in 2007. He's done it again this year and there's reason to believe he's finally moved past the debilitating injuries that derailed his promising career. Bedard has been no picture of health of late, but if I were a betting man, I'd lay my money down.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Has the competitive balance changed?

The trade was so insignificant it probably passed most baseball fans without notice, just a blip on their trade-deadline radar. The deal went down just as the trade deadline hit. Casey McGehee was traded to the Yankees for Chad Qualls. If anything, it irked some Pirates fans who saw Qualls as some kind of bullpen pariah, a bad-luck charm for the team. On the surface, it was just a trade involving two guys who were soon to be designated for assignment, instead going to clubs who demonstrated a need at their primary position. The Yanks need help at third base with A-Rod on the shelf and the Bucs needed to fill a spot in the bullpen with Brad Lincoln being shipped to Toronto in the Travis Snider deal. But looks can be deceiving. There was something rather significant about the deal that many folks were not aware of: along with infielder Casey McGehee, the Pirates also sent cash to the Yankees.

It was not the amount of cash that would be of great significance to a team, nor was it an amount that needed to be approved by the Commissioner's office; yet, a reported $225,000 did exchange hands. What's remarkable about it is that the money went from the small-market, low-revenue Pirates to the big-budget juggernaut known as the New York Yankees. Think about that for a minute, the Pirates were sending salary relief to the Yankees.

Now, on its own, it is of no great significance, but it is a symbol of change in baseball, albeit tiny. The Yankees and other teams are anxious to get under the luxury tax, so they're becoming more cost-conscious. Owner Hal Steinbrenner is reportedly determined to get the team under the luxury threshold by 2014. Part of the reason for this is that the luxury tax rates are going up under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). This year, the tax is 42% of anything spent over $178 million. In 2013, that number jumps to 50%. There's another motivation for getting under the threshold, though. Starting in 2014, the luxury tax threshold becomes $189 million. With some clever cutting, the Yankees might well be able to sneak under the limit. And that could be very profitable for them. You see, the new CBA also has a tiered system for paying luxury tax. First-time offenders pay only 17.5% in tax. Second-time offenders pay 30%. The third time is 40% and the fourth time or higher is that dreaded 50%. But again, there's a catch. The rate you pay is based on how many consecutive years you've exceeded the threshold; drop under the line even once and your rate re-sets. That could amount to millions of dollars in savings for teams like the Yankees. So, for the time being at least, there's a real incentive for the Yankees to work to get under that limit.

And it's not just the Yankees, either. The Phillies had the second-highest Opening Day Payroll and with the team now out of playoff contention, they are actively trying to shed salary. Nobody was surprised that Shane Victorino was traded at the deadline since his contract expires at the end of the season. Many folks raised their eyebrows, though, when the Phillies also shipped out Hunter Pence who had another year of team control. Pence, however, is expected to make around $14 million in his last year of arbitration next year, so with the luxury tax in mind, the Phillies decided they didn't have that money to spend. The recent extension signed by Cole Hamels is also causing some ripples in Philly. Again, it was no shocker when Joe Blanton was moved in a waiver-trade with the Dodgers, but what is surprising is that the Phillies even contemplated trading Cliff Lee. Lee is a huge part of that Philly rotation, but he has over $90 million left on his contract and the Phillies are butting right up against the luxury tax threshold.

So what exactly does this all mean for a team like the Pirates? Well, not much at present, but it could mean that teams start to readjust how they approach free agency. You may see a lot fewer mega deals or spending sprees like you saw with Miami this year. Did you notice what the Marlins did at the deadline? They were in full fire-sale mode, trading away the likes of Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Edward Mujica and, most notably, Hanley Ramirez. They even traded struggling first basemen Gaby Sanchez to your Buccos, if you recall. They were banking on a contending team and expanded revenues from their new stadium to cover their above-market-value contracts; but as the team struggled and the seats weren't filled, they needed to free up cash.

The Pirates, meanwhile, took on some salary at the deadline, especially in the Wandy Rodriguez deal. They also traded away their Competitive Balance Lottery Pick, meaning they shrunk their pool of money that they will have to sign picks in next year's draft. Part of what allowed them to feel comfortable doing so was the extra first-round pick they have due to their inability to sign Mark Appel, but they also are looking at increased revenue at the ballpark. Attendance is up around 7,000 per game this year at PNC Park and they've set a series of weekday/daytime attendance records this summer. General Manager Neal Huntington said that he had approval from owner Bob Nutting to add payroll at the deadline, if necessary. Pirates fans are coming out of the woodwork to support a winner and that contributes to a slightly deeper pocketbook.

For a team like the Pirates, though, who have been mired in a record-setting streak of losing seasons, these things take time. Similarly, teams like the Yankees and Phillies will continue to use their revenues to attract big-money free agents, even if they feel a little constrained by the luxury tax. You also can't overlook a team like the Dodgers who, with new ownership, are pumping money into the club like crazy. So, no, the competitive balance really hasn't changed, but it's still nice to see the Pirates' willingness to spend a little more and it still raises a jolly laugh out of me to see the Pirates providing salary relief to the Yankees.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Why should you care about Gregory Polanco?

As we approached this year's non-waiver trade deadline, we kept hearing that Neal Huntington was reluctant to part with a Top-6 prospect in a trade. Most folks assumed that it meant that Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Luis Heredia and Alen Hanson were off the table. There is one name that did not get bandied about much, though, that could have been part of that conversation: Gregory Polanco.

Like Alen Hanson, Polanco is having a breakout year in low-A ball in West Virginia. Also like Hanson, he was signed as an International Free Agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2009. As a shortstop in a system barren of middle infielders, Hanson has understandably gotten more of the attention, but Polanco, a center fielder, is another 5-tool talent on the rise. This year he is hitting .326/.389/.511 with 13 home runs, 76 runs batted in and 40 stolen bases. Those are video game numbers. He's also just 20 years old, so he still might be growing physically. He has even shown considerable plate patience this year with 40 walks and only 61 strikeouts in 436 plate appearances.

Writers and analysts are starting to take notice, too. Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects was one of the first to praise him and currently has Polanco ranked fifth among all pirates prospects. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus was asked on Twitter recently if he considered putting Alen Hanson in his midseason Top-50 list. He indicated that he did consider Hanson, but also Polanco. He later confirmed that he currently rates Gregory Polanco ahead of Hanson.

Polanco and Hanson are both products of the new Dominican Academy that was built by the Pirates at the urging of owner Bob Nutting. Starling Marte, who recently homered in his major league debut, was the first "graduate" of that academy. The Pirates have not had this kind of influence and success in Latin American in decades and hopefully Marte, Polanco and Hanson are just the tip of the iceberg. I think you'll be hearing a lot more of Polanco in the not-too-distant future and that's a real testament to the investment the Pirates have made in recent years in the Dominican Republic.

What does a true fan look like?

Monday night, I made the trek down to Wrigley Field to see my beloved Pirates take on the Chicago Cubs. It was the night before the trade deadline, so I spent the first few innings obsessively checking my Twitter feed to see if the Bucs had made any moves. After Reed Johnson was pulled from the game, I spent nearly a half hour trying to figure out if he was headed across the diamond to the visitor's dugout. As is traditionally the case, I was also busying myself with keeping score. My wife was with me, too, but her attention was understandably occupied by the adorable baby in Cubs gear sitting directly in front of us in the nosebleed section.

While all of this was going on, I began to notice that there were some Pirates fans sitting a couple of seats down, but I was so preoccupied with everything else, I didn't really pay them much mind. Then, the unexpected happened. The Cubs scored nine runs in one inning. Already down 4-2 in the fifth inning, Erik Bedard and Chris Resop combined to give up nine runs on eight hits to the lowly Cubs. A wave of disbelief washed over me. I stopped checking Twitter. I stopped making faces at the baby. I just tried to process what had happened on the field.

Then, I noticed him. The patriarch of the family donning Pirates gear just a couple of seats over. He was smiling. He turned to me and said, "I see you wearing the gold 'P' on your chest. Have you been a Pirates fan for long?" His accent startled me. He spoke in a deep Texas drawl. His conversation was folksy, but intelligent. We began chatting. I told him that I had been born and raised in Pittsburgh and that the Pirates had always been my team. He told me that he grew up on a farm near the small city of DeKalb, Texas. He became a Pirates fan as a youngster just after WWII. There was not a local team at the time, but he loved baseball. In the evenings, on a good day, his family could just make out the Pirates broadcasts beamed halfway across the country by the powerful KDKA signal.

In Little League, he and his friends dreamed of becoming Pittsburgh Pirates. He was a catcher and one of his battery mates was a young man named Luke Walker. For Luke, that dream came true. Those into baseball trivia might remember that Walker threw the first pitch in a night game in World Series history. That was game four of the 1971 Worlds Series. My friend at the game chats about Walker in an easy and proud manner. There is no hint of jealously or sarcasm in his voice. He was happy Luke made it to the show and was proud to have caught him.

Through the years, my friend closely followed his beloved Buccos. He talked lovingly of Clemente and Stargell and especially Mazeroski. "You see Walker out there?" He was now talking about current Pirates second baseman Neil Walker. "The Pittsburgh kid. Great Athlete. I hear he was a terrific football player in high school. He's a pretty good defender now. That's because of Maz. You can't find a better person to teach you how to play second. There was nobody like him." My friend shared with me that he had made the trek to Pittsburgh just a few times. He lamented that he never got a chance to see Forbes Field in person, but he went to Three Rivers Stadium a couple of times and make his first trip to PNC Park just last year. "Beautiful stadium." I asked him about the Mazeroski statue. "Have you seen it? You've got to get back home to see it. Amazing."

The word "home" struck me. Here was a man from Texas sitting next to me at Wrigley Field rooting on the Pirates. I asked him if he was in town for some special reason. "Of course. I came to see the Pirates. I've never been to Wrigley Field. Seemed like a good time to come." This man traveled over 800 miles to a city he'd never been just to see the Pirates play. He wasn't alone either. "I brought my grandson." He was beaming at this point. "Three generations of men in my family here to root on the Pirates. Happy to be here." And he was. It didn't matter that his team was on its way to losing 14-4. It was spending time with his Pirates that he cherished.

Casey McGehee was pinch-hitting in the sixth. "I can't figure this guy out," he muses. "He looked real good for a couple of weeks, but he's just not doing it for this team. A shame." McGehee promptly killed a potential rally by grounding into an inning-ending double play. The next day, McGehee was gone in a trade to the Yankees. My friend went on to say that he hoped the Pirates picked up a right fielder at the trade deadline. "This team's got a history of great right fielders. It's important. Dave Parker was one of the best. Pittsburgh never really took to the guy. Maybe it's because he was cocky and wore an earring. All I know is he had a cannon of an arm. A lot like the guy he replaced." He paused. "That's the problem, though, nobody was going to be able to replace Clemente in that town. Too bad." It was fascinating to hear him talk about generations of Pirates players. He was a fan, a true and loyal fan, but he grew up somewhere else. He had a perspective that very few people have. "Remember Dale Berra? I bet you were just old enough to have remembered Dale Berra." I assured him that I did remember Berra, though I was pretty young. I mentioned that Berra was one of the first players I had a baseball card of. "I always liked Dale Berra. He played hard, with an edge, sorta. Nice infielder. Seemed a little high-strung maybe. Then years later, you find out he's on drugs...cocaine. I guess we should've seen it coming. Made sense, though. Really did."

The openness with which my friend expressed his feelings about his team, its history and its players was refreshing. The love he showed for his team was profound. The patient hunger he displayed for his team to be back on top was moving. You know what? He could have been my dad. He's probably about my dad's age. Talking to him, I found myself sharing stories about my dad. I told him how my dad would pick my mom up after school and they'd walk down to Forbes Field and catch a game. I told him how my dad and I would go to Pirates games together all the time, especially when PNC Park opened. I told him stories my dad told me about Clemente and Stargell and Mazeroski. The only difference is, he grew up over a thousand miles from Pittsburgh, in a small Texas town. But they both listened to Bob Prince call the games on KDKA as youngsters and they both developed a passion for the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are both true fans.

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Did the Pirates deadline deals make them better?

As has become customary since Neal Huntington took over as the Pirates GM, today's trade deadline was an active one in Pittsburgh. After being buyers for the first time in nearly two decades last season, the Pirates were once again in a position to seek upgrades to the major league team. As of this writing, the Pirates were three games back of the Reds in the NL Central and tied for the NL Wild Card lead with the Atlanta Braves. What was tricky about this deadline for the Pirates was striking a balance between upgrading the team right now for the stretch run, while avoiding giving up top prospects that are expected to help the team contend for many years to come. Huntington made it clear he was unwilling to give up top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon and most observers got the impression that Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Luis Heredia and Alen Hanson were also off the table.

So what were the Pirates able to do? The Pirates acquired LHP Wandy Rodriguez, OF Travis Snider, 1B Gaby Sanchez and RHP Chad Qualls for the major league squad. The Pirates also acquired minor league reliever Kyle Kaminska in the Sanchez deal and received cash in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. On the flip side, the Pirates gave up RHP Brad Lincoln, OF Gorkys Hernandez, INF Casey McGehee and minor leaguers Robbie Grossman, Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. Additionally, the Pirates gave up their recently-won competitive balance draft pick in the Sanchez deal and included cash in the deal for Qualls. Finally, the Pirates designated Drew Sutton for assignment.

That's a lot to digest, but a clear pattern is discernible. Huntington tried to upgrade the major league roster, while keeping his farm system mostly intact. He also focused on acquiring pieces with several years of control, rather than short-term rentals. Huntington called the prices for rentals "prohibitive" and was unwilling to give up much of value to acquire one of those pieces. He felt the prices for rentals had gone up this year, despite the fact that the new CBA eliminated draft pick compensation for players who are traded mid-season. One reason for that is the implementation of the new Wild Card spot. Since more spots are available, more teams feel they are still in it and, therefore, there's a limited trade market that develops. That demand drives up the prices.

It is clear that the Pirates upgraded to some extent. Snider has good pop and won't hurt you on defense. He's likely to struggle some with strikeouts, but showed good patience in the minors. He's been up and down from the majors for a few years in Toronto, but is still only 24. His profile is somewhat similar to Pedro Alvarez, who is a year older than Snider and is just coming into his own at the major league level. Hopefully hitting coach Greg Ritchie can work his magic with Snider in the same way he's turned Pedro's season (and possibly career) around. Snider's acquisition pushes Alex Presley to the bench, a clear upgrade over Gorkys Hernandez.

The move also pushes Garrett Jones to first base in a platoon with newly acquired Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez has really struggled this year after being an All-Star for the Marlins just a year ago. Sanchez was presumably pressing after nearly losing his job to Albert Pujols this offseason. Hopefully, a change of scenery will do him good. Regardless, he's had pretty good platoon splits and should at least be a bench upgrade over McGehee who had a couple decent weeks with the bat and surprisingly good defense at first, but overall struggled to gain any traction.

Rather than DFA McGehee, Huntington swung a last-minute deal to flip him to the Yankees for reliever Chad Qualls. This was a bit puzzling since Qualls has had a poor season and Huntington included $225,000 in cash in the deal; however, Qualls has had decent numbers against righties and might serve as a decent late-inning righty specialist. He will take the spot of Brad Lincoln who was shipped out in the Snider deal.

The most visible upgrade was Huntington's first strike this year. Houston Ace Wandy Rodriguez was acquired for a trio of mid-level prospects. Houston is covering a portion of his contract as part of the deal. Rodriguez slides into the three spot in the rotation and pushes Correia into long-relief and spot-starting duties. Correia requested a trade, but Huntington did not find a suitable deal at the deadline. Correia still has the chance to be a solid swing man if he can adjust to the routine of bullpen duty and stays stretched out enough to spot-start during a brutal upcoming stretch of 20 games without an off-day.

Overall, the Pirates moves will seem unimpressive to some, but they should certainly upgrade the team. Their rivals in the NL Central (the Reds and Cardinals) did not do much to upgrade at the deadline outside of Cincinnati acquiring relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton. Remember, the Pirates can still make trades in August as well, as long as the player passes through waivers. There are a number of waiver-trade candidates this season, including SS Stephen Drew, OF Alfonso Soriano and P Joe Blanton. Activity in August may be higher this year as teams start to drop out of contention.

Huntington managed to upgrade the team, while not sacrificing the future. None of the team's top 6 prospects were traded and the guys he acquired retain several years of control. The only questionable deal involved bringing in Chad Qualls, but it was an exchange of players ready to be designated for assignment. Pittsburgh had an opening in the bullpen with Lincoln being traded and the Yankees needed corner infield depth with Alex Rodriguez on the DL. It may not have been the kind of all-in approach that some folks were looking for, but there's no reason this team can't compete for the playoffs as constructed right now. Before the moves, the team was on pace for 92 wins and the team is clearly better on paper than it was a day ago.

Monday, July 30, 2012

What should the Pirates do with Correia?

Kevin Correia has been a lot of things for the Pittsburgh Pirates over the past season and two-thirds. He went from veteran innings-eater to temporary ace to All-Star. Prolonged struggles after the break last year and the A.J. Burnett acquisition in the spring meant that he was potentially becoming little more than rotation depth. After some early-season rough patches this year, he settled in as a solid back-end starter who kept his team in the game. It was a mild surprise he stuck in the rotation over Brad Lincoln when Jeff Karstens got healthy, but it was no surprise to anyone following this team that he was eventually bumped to the bullpen when GM Neal Huntington acquired Houston ace Wandy Rodriguez via trade. Now, he sports a new title: malcontent.

Certainly, Kevin Correia has every right to be disappointed about his move to the pen, but since it's the right move for this team and since it provides rotation depth with the promise of spot-starts during a brutal stretch of games without a breather in August, you'd hope that he would eventually move past it and work hard to help this team make the playoffs. After all, isn't that why you play the game: to win? Isn't the goal to find an opportunity to make the playoffs and fight for a spot in the World Series? Perhaps not for everyone. Correia is a free agent after this year and he knows the demotion to the pen will likely decrease his market value. He would rather start for a non-contender than be the swing man for a contender because he wants other teams to think of him as an effective starting option once his contract expires. To that end, he has requested a trade from the Pirates.

So, given all of that, what should the Pirates do with their discontented pitcher? Well, the best-case scenario at this point would be to include him in a trade for a major-league player who's going to help the team this year. Despite trading away some of our rotation depth by including Rudy Owens in the Wandy Rodriguez deal, we still have Jeff Locke in AAA, plus Brad Lincoln in the major league bullpen. If it came to that, I'd prefer to give Locke a shot since Lincoln has been lights-out in the bullpen and has shown the ability to succeed in late-inning pressure situations.

Beyond that scenario, I'd keep Correia as depth and hope his attitude improves. He has the potential to be a good long man (though he struggled mightily in his first bullpen appearance yesterday) and, as previously mentioned, the Pirates have a lot of games in August without an off-day, so spot-starts are a real possibility. It's just not likely that the Pirates will be able to get anything of equivalent value for Correia on the market since he's a back-of-the-rotation starter whose contract expires at the end of the season. If the choice is between getting a Grade C prospect in a trade or keeping Correia, I'd definitely keep him. If Correia's attitude gets worse, though, it may force Huntington's hand.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Should the Pirates trade Hanrahan?

In the offseason, the hot rumor surrounding the Pirates involved closer Joel Hanrahan. Many in the industry thought Hanrahan would be moved sometime this season because he was about to become cost prohibitive for the low-budget Buccos. Hanrahan is making a whopping $4.1 million dollars in his second year of arbitration. He still has another year of team control, but as he's on pace for another 40-save season, his price tag will likely be way above $5 million. That's an awful lot of money to pay a reliever, especially when you've got solid in-house options to replace him (Grilli, Lincoln). Plus, GM Neal Huntington has done a masterful job assembling bullpens the last few years, so there's no reason to think he can't find one or two additional options on the open market.

Still, with the Pirates in contention, Huntington has hinted that he prefers to keep his All-Star closer for the stretch run. That seemed to quiet the trade talk until Tom Singer innocently mentioned a couple of days ago that he heard that Hanrahan might be able to net the Pirates two major league bats. This set off a firestorm of chatter on the internet about whether this meant Huntington was shopping Hanrahan and if they thought the big flamethrower should or should not be traded.

Here's my take: Huntington is likely not shopping his closer, but is reluctant to pay for Hanrahan beyond this year so is keeping an open mind about the situation and weighing his options. It's clear the Pirates would like to add one more bat before the trade deadline next Tuesday and it's possible Hanrahan could allow the Pirates to do so without giving up the farm, so to speak. It certainly helps that both Jason Grilli and Brad Lincoln have emerged as potential replacements for Hanrahan. That was clearly on display Saturday night in Houston when Lincoln pitched a scoreless eighth and Grilli followed with a clean ninth to secure a close win on a day Hanrahan was unavailable. Grilli put up All-Star worthy numbers in the first half, has a mid-90s fastball and a wicked slider. Lincoln's got similar velocity with a devastating curve and has a relief ERA barely over a half a run. Plus, he has looked stellar in pressure situations.

I would absolutely be open to the idea of trading Hanrahan, especially for a bat that was under team control through next season. In fact, if the front office wants to get a piece that's more than just a rental, they may need to shed some payroll. Including Hanrahan in such a trade could kill two birds with one stone. Obviously, Hanrahan is a very valuable commodity and could be moved in the offseason, so the deal would have to be significant; but in the right trade, I think it makes perfect sense for Huntington to trade The Hammer for an impact bat.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Should McKenry get more playing time?

Last night, Michael McKenry helped spark an amazing comeback win for the Bucs. He went 3-4 with a double, a key home run, scoring twice and collecting two RBI. The home run was his ninth in only 138 plate appearances. For the season, he's hitting .267/.341/.567 and has a 1.4 WAR.

By contrast, starting catcher Rod Barajas has struggled at the plate, posting a .205/.280/.362 slash line. He has 19 RBI in 236 plate appearances, three less than McKenry in nearly a hundred more PAs. Barajas has managed eight homers of his own, but sports an uninspiring -0.3 WAR. His defense, supposedly his strong suit, hasn't been much better. He has five passed balls and has only thrown out four of the 59 runners who have attempted to steal off of him. Granted, some of the blame has to be put on the pitchers, but that's an awful ratio.

So, should McKenry get more playing time? By all accounts, Barajas has handled the pitchers well and he is at least partially responsible for A.J. Burnett's renewed success. Barajas is also likely to catch the newest member of the rotation Wandy Rodriguez for awhile, as his facility with Spanish should help with communication and ease Wandy's transition to a new team. So, really we'd be talking about catching a maximum of three out of every five days. That would mean basically flip-flopping roles for the two catchers, as McKenry generally starts a couple of times a week anyway to keep Barajas fresh.

At this point, I would definitely be in favor of riding the hot bat and seeing what McKenry can do. His defense hasn't been great either, but I think both of these catchers have the confidence of the starters and McKenry seems to have generally improved on offense. He's made terrific strides for a guy who was by no means guaranteed a roster spot heading into Spring Training. Maybe all those offseason sessions with Clint Hurdle have really payed off.

Friday, July 27, 2012

How good has A.J. Burnett been?

Last night was all about Starling Marte. How could it not have been? The hotly anticipated debut of the Pirates' top position prospect got started with a bang as Marte deposited the first pitch he saw into the left field bleachers. No one would therefore blame you if you failed to notice that A.J. Burnett had another tremendous start for the Bucs, pitching 7.1 strong innings, giving up only two runs, walking one batter and striking out five en route to his 12th victory of the season.

Indeed, Burnett has been a steadying force in the rotation and has consistently pitched deep into ballgames. In his 18 starts, he's pitched at least six innings 14 times and at least seven innings on eight separate occasions. He has a very solid 3.52 ERA and a similarly strong 3.49 xFIP. That's a good omen for continued success. Part of his success stems from his wicked curveball that he can use as an out-pitch. His K/9 rate is a healthy 7.36, while he's only walking 2.74 batters per nine innings. His 1.8 WAR is already higher than each of his last two full seasons with the Yankees, who are paying the majority of Burnett's contract that runs through next season.

It's very possible that by season's end, Burnett will have a WAR exceeding 3.0, which would make it his most valuable season, statistically, since he helped the New York Yankees win the 2009 World Series. I sure like the sound of that. Throw in his off-the-field influence on James McDonald and the rest of the pitching staff, and you've got an incredibly valuable asset.

Who will join the Marte Partay?

You should have been there Thursday night. No, not in Houston to attend the Pirates' handling of the lowly Astros. You should have been online as the Twitterverse exploded in raucous support of our newest Bucco. Jon Anderson of McEffect coined the phrase and every Pirates fan immediately wanted to join the #MartePartay. It was even trending in Pittsburgh, along with the more traditional (but far less fun) "Starling Marte".

And the hero of our story did not disappoint. Swinging at the first pitch he saw from Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel, Marte hit a bomb to left for his first big league home run. He later added a single to cap a 2-4 night, which had folks in Pittsburgh recalling the similarly successful debut of MVP front-runner Andrew McCutchen. Marte obviously plays with a lot of energy and excitement and that's just what the Pirates need at the top of their lineup. Though he still has doubters, Marte flashes a unique skill set that has had Pirates fans in a tizzy since Spring Training. After seeing Marte perform on Thursday, it's hard not to get caught up in the excitement.

The Root Sports broadcast had plenty of shots of Marte: replays of the home run, shots of him learning the ways of the Zoltan from Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen and even snapshots of him smiling and chatting with his new teammates in the dugout. There was one Root Sports shot, however, that stood out to me above all others, and Marte was nowhere to be seen. It was a glimpse of the starters smiling and chatting together in the dugout, while Kevin Correia moped quietly on the bench behind them. It was a bit of a shocker, actually. In the midst of Marte's spectacular debut and lots of excitement over the other newcomer Wandy Rodriguez, there was Correia darkly brooding alone in the corner of the dugout while his team was popping roundtrippers like candy.

Now, it's no surprise that Kevin Correia would be bummed about being taken out of the rotation, especially after a nice win on Wednesday capped a six-game winning streak for the big righty. But the image was so jarring it reminded me that this Pirates team was undergoing a lot of change and that change might not be over.

It's no secret that the Pirates have been searching for a bat to add to their lineup, and while many sports analysts were quick to say that maybe they had found that bat in Marte, Neal Huntington was probably still making calls between innings to see what's out there. John Perrotto mentioned earlier in the day that the Pirates had checked in on Cleveland outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Jerry Crasnick suggested that the Pirates were looking to flip an obviously disappointed Correia for a useful part. Beyond that, though, things have been eerily quiet in the Pirates rumor mill since the Rodriguez trade. Still, with the trade deadline just over four days away, the question remains: who will join the Marte Partay?

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Should the Pirates seek bench help?

The Pirates' front office has had a flurry of activity the last couple of days. Two days ago, the Pirates fortified their already above-average rotation by trading for Wandy Rodriguez. Then, yesterday we got word that the Pirates' top position prospect Starling Marte was being recalled in time for their Thursday night game against the Astros. That gives the Pirates a potential fixture at the top of their lineup. The Rodriguez trade will bump a starter from the rotation (likely Kevin Correia) and that should deepen an already stellar bullpen. In fact, it could allow the Pirates to trade somebody like Jared Hughes or Brad Lincoln in order to acquire more hitting.

But what of the Pirates' bench? Before the Marte call-up, the Pirates had a bench of Drew Sutton, Jordy Mercer, Gorkys Hernandez, Michael McKenry and Josh Harrison. That's nothing to write home about. There are a couple decent defensive replacements in there (notably Hernandez), but outside of McKenry's occasional power it's about as weak-hitting a bench you could construct.

Now, with the Marte addition, Alex Presley will join the bench and one of Sutton, Mercer or Hernandez will be sent down. Still, that move doesn't do much to improve the Pirates' bench. It is very possible that the Pirates are still trying to acquire another starting outfielder to add pop and depth to the lineup. That would certainly help the bench as Garrett Jones and Casey McGehee would presumably move into a platoon at first base. There are a lot of buyer and few sellers, though, so the acquisition cost for one of those bats could prove prohibitive. I highly doubt Neal Huntington will want to give up one of his top-six prospects, so his remaining trade chips are mid-tier guys like Kyle McPherson, Gregory Polanco and Justin Wilson.

One area the Pirates could target instead is the bench. Acquiring complementary pieces like Reed Johnson of the Cubs or Marco Scutaro of the Rockies could add real depth for a Pirates playoff run. The acquisition cost for these players would be much smaller as well. They could give up a Grade C Prospect and probably not lose much more than organizational depth. This type of a deal could be made with a fellow contender, too. The Red Sox, for example, have a glut of outfielders and could look to move one of Ryan Kalish, Ryan Sweeney or Cody Ross. Indeed the Pirates are thought to have asked about them and have scouted the Red Sox heavily this summer.

I still think Neal Huntington could have something big in the works. Just imagine plugging Hunter Pence or Billy Butler into the lineup. But if Chase Headley, Justin Upton and the rest become a pipe dream, Huntington would do well to strengthen and deepen the bench. It could be done at a reasonable cost and could really make the difference down the stretch.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Can Soriano help the Pirates defensively?

With Starling Marte reportedly on his way to join the big league club, the Pirates' need at the top of the lineup seems to be filled for now. They could still use a corner outfielder with pop, though, particularly from the right side. One name you hear bandied about is Cubs LF Alfonso Soriano. Soriano is having one of his finest offensive seasons in years, posting a .274/.324/.503 line with 19 HR and 58 RBI. He has a WAR of 2.8 so far, more than twice his full-season WAR a year ago.

There have been two knocks on Soriano, though, that have made him less than desirable as a trade target: his defense and his contract. The latter seems like it would be a significant deterrent to the Pirates and other small market teams. Soriano is owed about $6 million for the remainder of the season and then a whopping $18 million each of the next two years. That's an incredible amount of money, but the Cubs are probably resigned to the fact they'll have to cover a huge portion of his contract in order to move him.

Soriano's defense in the outfield has annually been a sore spot. He's always had a cannon of an arm, so he's a deterrent to runners, but he often misjudged balls and would inexplicably hop before catching a high fly ball, leading to a few awkward misplays. He has decent range, though, and really seems to have turned a corner defensively this year. He's got a UZR of 10.7 and an astonishingly high 20.6 UZR/150. That puts him third in all of baseball. It's really an incredible turnaround and much credit is due Dale Sveum's staff in Chicago, particularly outfielders coach Dave McKay. Still, advanced metrics for defense continue to be a work in progress; so, how does Soriano do in the eye-test? Fox Sports reporter Jon Paul Morosi notes that a scout said Soriano was playing "at least average-and maybe even above average" defensive in left field. That's certainly better than what we've been getting from the likes of Drew Sutton, Garrett Jones and Josh Harrison. I don't know what the acquisition cost for Soriano would be, but if the Pirates could get the Cubs to cover most of Soriano's contract and give up only a pair of fringe prospects (akin to the Ichiro deal), I'd be inclined to take a chance.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Who won the Wandy Rodriguez trade?

Every time there's a major trade in baseball, there's a rush to determine who won and who lost. Rarely does anyone consider that, at least on the surface, a trade appears to be fair to both parties. Admittedly there are a lot more buyers than sellers at this trade deadline, so it would be easy to assume the sellers will get the better end of the deals. Naturally, that's not always the case. In this instance, I think both teams got what they wanted and I think both teams got a fair deal.

The Pirates get a legitimate middle of the rotation starter without having to give up a top-six prospect. We saw just a day ago where the Tigers gave up their top pitching prospect in a deal to acquire a middle of the rotation starter and a decent second basemen. The fact that the Pirates could get a guy like Rodriguez who is under team control through at least 2013 and possibly through 2014 without giving up the likes of Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon is a win for this Pirates team. Huntington has indicated that he'd like to upgrade the team without giving up pitchers Cole, Taillon and Luis Heredia as well as outfielder Starling Marte and Josh Bell and infielder Alen Hanson. So far, so good.

The Pirates are also receiving cash in the deal. Per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the Astros will pay all but $1.7 million this year, $8.5 million (of $13 million) in 2013 and, if Rodriguez exercises his option, $7.5 million (of $13 million) in 2014. The remaining salary is pretty reasonable for the Pirates and is close to on par with what they are paying A.J. Burnett. The money the Astros are kicking in is important as it helps balance out the value of the prospects forfeited and it helps keep the Pirates' payroll at a reasonable level over the next couple of years.

From the Astros perspective, they got a nice haul of decent prospects: outfielder Robbie Grossman and left-handed pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. Before the 2012 season, Baseball America had Grossman ranked as the Pirates' eighth best prospect, with Cain and Owens ranked 13 and 16 respectively. All of them are legitimate prospects, just not high-ceiling ones. Grossman was the Pirates' minor league player of the year in 2011 and was likely the centerpiece of the deal. As noted in this blog, he is a speedy outfielder with excellent on-base skills. He profiles as a bit of a tweener, though, as his defense probably won't allow him to stick in center field and he doesn't generate the kind of power you'd like to see in a corner bat. Cain, who like Grossman is a Texas native who signed out of high school instead of playing for the University of Texas, is a big lefty who throws in the low-90s but is still developing his breaking stuff. He profiles as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. Owens, likewise, has a ceiling as a mid-rotation guy, but is more refined and could be ready to step into the Astros' rotation later this season. All-in-all, not a bad group of talent for an expensive starting pitcher in his 30s.

It's always tough to evaluate these types of trades on the spot, but I think it was a fair trade for both teams. Wandy Rodriguez is a classic change-of-scenery guy who was pitching for a losing team in a hitters park. PNC Park is a solid park for lefty pitchers and being part of a pennant race should help focus Rodriguez. Hurdle seemed to indicate also that Ray Searage and his staff may have seen a few things on tape that could help Rodriguez. We'll find out soon enough as Rodriguez set to make his next start against his former team this weekend.