Saturday, July 21, 2012

Which Upton should the Pirates target?

For weeks now, speculation has swirled around the possibility of the Pirates acquiring outfielder Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Upton is a terrific talent having a down year, but his ceiling is similar to Andrew McCutchen's and he is under team control for three more years at a reasonable salary. Acquiring him would cost the Pirates quite a bounty: likely Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, and maybe two others. The Pirates have a real opportunity this year, not just to break the 19-year streak of losing seasons, but to win the division and make the playoffs. However, after spending years building the farm system from the ground up, Neal Huntington will be reluctant to part with such highly regarded prospects that are expected to help the Pirates for years to come.

As a Plan B, so to speak, the Pirates have talked about acquiring a corner outfielder with pop as a rental. This would be a player like Carlos Quentin of San Diego Padres. Since his contract expires at the end of the season, he would likely command a lot less in a trade. The Pirates have been linked to just about every outfield bat that is potentially available. One name that hasn't come up is Justin's brother B.J. Upton. The Rays are still contenders, but might be willing to part with Upton. Like Quentin, Upton's contract expires at season's end and the Rays have mastered the art of continually stocking their farm system while simultaneously playing to win. Already we've heard names like James Shields and Ben Zobrist being kicked around as potential trade chips.

B.J. Upton would require less in a trade than his brother, yet they are having similar seasons. B.J. has posted a line of .252/.310/.392 with nine HR, 36 RBI and 16 SB. Justin's line is .273/.353/.404 with eight HR, 41 RBI and 11 SB. According to Fangraphs, B.J. has a season WAR of 1.1. Justin's, meanwhile, is 1.6. Part of that difference is attributable to defense. B.J. has -3.1 UZR this season, but that's below his career norm and in Pittsburgh he could slide out of CF and over to left, where he would be a good fit. The Pirates could bat him either leadoff or fourth, both of which are spots he's occupied in Tampa Bay's lineup this season.

Like most Pirates fans, I'd obviously prefer to have Justin on my team; but we've heard from several reporters that Pittsburgh does not match up well with Arizona for a potential deal. The Diamondbacks are looking for shortstop or third base help and the Pirates are thin there. Meanwhile, the Rays always covet pitching and that's the strength of the Pirates farm system. A package involving Jeff Locke or Justin Wilson may well entice the Rays who could lose B.J. to free agency after the season. It sounds like Neal Huntington has been inquiring about just about every bat out there, but if he hasn't already, I'd encourage him to ask about one more.

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