Is Kevin Correia better than his statistics?

For over a month now, Pirates fans have viewed each of Kevin Correia's starts as, potentially, his last. Yet, he will take the mound for the Buccos tonight in Milwaukee and, very likely, every fifth day for weeks afterward. Correia has never fared well in the eye test. He is big and lumbering and totally lacking in elite "stuff". So, there must be something hidden in his numbers that keeps the Pirates running him out there, right?

Well, no, not really. You see, beyond his lackluster appeal to casual fans, those who dabble in advanced metrics dislike Correia even more. To them, Correia is nothing more than a replacement-level player. His 0.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is representative of this. So, too, is his poor 3.4 K/9. Think his 4.34 ERA is a bit high? Try his 5.24 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Sabermetricians will tell you that even his mediocre play is unsustainable.

Still, the Pirates run him out there. And the world sits and watches and waits for the wheels to come off. Some folks make excuses for the Pirates noting that Charlie Morton is on the DL or that he'll be gone once one of the lefthanders at AAA is ready or that they're just biding their time until a trade is made. The truth is none of that holds water. The Pirates already have a viable alternative in the majors who has shown the ability, at times, to be a productive starter at a level beyond what Correia is capable: Brad Lincoln.

No, the Pirates leave him out there for a reason, but it's not because of any of those things. Correia keeps them in games. He's a fighter. He gives up hits, but keeps his walks to a minimum with a 2.7 BB/9 rate. Furthermore, he has a ridiculously high 74% LOB rate (Left On Base). Unsustainable, right? For his career, Correia has stranded 71.8% of runners he lets on. Think about that. Seven out of ten times, if he lets a runner on, he strands them on base. That's astounding and it defies conventional thought.

Let's look at a recent start against the Detroit Tigers and ace Justin Verlander. Correia struggled out of the gate and gave up two quick runs in the first. Fans wrote the Pirates off right then, especially with Verlander on the mound; but Correia bore down and managed to keep the Tigers off the board for the rest of his six innings. The Pirates eventually lost that game, but everyone in the clubhouse admired the tenacity shown by Correia. Weeks later when asked what was the Pirates most impressive game of the year, infielder Casey McGehee cited that loss to Detroit rather than one of their many comeback wins. That says something.

In a recent radio interview, Rob Neyer of SBNation said that maybe it's time for us to start thinking of Correia as a statistical outlier. Take a moment and think about that. A national writer committed to the study of advanced metrics thinks Correia could defy statistical logic. That's good enough for me...well, for now at least. I would be happy to see the Pirates upgrade their rotation for a stretch run, but until then, I'd keep Lincoln in the bullpen where he's been most effective and ride Correia as my fifth starter until the wheels come off.