Tomorrow night, Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Indianapolis Indians in the AAA playoffs. It will be his second start at AAA after breezing through stops in Bradenton and Altoona. It's pretty clear that the Pirates number one prospect is on the rise and his arrival in Pittsburgh is not far off. So, when should we expect to see Gerrit Cole in a Pirates uniform?
Well, the answer is sometime next year, though it's unclear when. The Pirates probably felt he would be ready by the middle of next season, which would be ideal financially as he would be able to avoid Super-Two arbitration status. But Cole's meteoric rise this year had some in the organization wondering whether or not he should be considered for a call-up this season to help the Pirates down the stretch. That's highly unlikely to happen, but it does make one wonder whether or not he'll be given a legitimate shot to make the team out of spring training.
He's certainly got the stuff to compete at the highest level right now. He's got an upper-90s fastball that holds its velocity deep into his starts a la Justin Verlander. In the Arizona Fall League, he topped out at 102 MPH. He has a plus slider and changeup and has been developing a 2-seam fastball as well.
His stuff has translated well to the field, too. In 13 games with High-A Bradenton, he had a 2.69 ERA, a 9.27 K/9 rate and a 2.82 BB/9 rate. That prompted the Pirates to promote him to AA Altoona where he didn't seem to be bothered by the competition change. In 12 starts there, he posted a 2.90 ERA, a 9.15 K/9 rate and a 3.51 BB/9 rate. His great stuff and remarkable consistency led to a promotion to AAA Indy in advance of their playoffs. His debut was a success with Cole getting the win while giving up three runs in 6.0 innings, walking one and striking out seven.
Next season, the Pirates have A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez under contract. James McDonald will be first-time arbitration eligible and will be tendered a contract. After that, the rotation gets a bit fuzzy. Jeff Karstens will be in his third year of arbitration and the Bucs are likely to tender him a contract, but he'll be due for a hefty raise over the $3.1 million he makes this year, so the Pirates could also consider him a non-tender candidate. Charlie Morton should be back to full health, but will the Pirates want to invest another $2.5 million on a guy who's been erratic and is coming off of a major injury?
That leaves two potential rotation spots up for grabs. Besides Karstens and Morton, there are a ton of AAA pitchers who will get a long look: Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson and Chris Leroux. The Pirates may also want to pursue a starter on the free-agent market. I would not count out Cole, though. Eventually, Baseball America's sixth-ranked midseason prospect will get a shot and unlike so many other young pitchers, he'll probably be up to stay. None of those guys above, including Karstens, will block Cole. When Cole is ready, the future ace will be up. After what we've seen this year, that time is coming sooner rather than later.
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