Last night, Erik Bedard was brilliant for the Pirates, giving up only two hits in seven scoreless frames while striking out five and walking none. In fact, since the All-Star break, Bedard has been mostly stellar, posting 3 quality starts in four chances and averaging only a run per game over those outings. His other outing was one to forget, though. On July 30, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 4.1 innings on the road against the Cubs.
That's been the pattern for Bedard most of the year: solid for awhile and then some really rough patches. He started off the year strong, but stumbled badly from mid-May to early-July. Given his injury history, many folks feared the worst. And then came this stretch of mostly terrific work. Even in the blowout in Chicago, he looked sharp at times, striking out seven batters in his shortened start. So, what are Pirates fans to make of Bedard? Can he be counted on down the stretch?
Well, let's look at the numbers. On the surface, they're not great. He's got a 6-12 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. I'm always surprised when I see those numbers, though, because I feel that he's pitched better than that this season. That's where advanced metrics fit in. Despite his bloated ERA, he has a much better xFIP of 4.06. He also has a healthy 8.63 K rate, which is right around his career average. His walk rate is a bit high, but overall, he has a decent 1.3 season WAR.
Most importantly, Bedard passes the eye test. He keeps hitters off balance, he knows when and how to pitch inside, and there's great life on his curve. Assuming he can stay healthy, he'll be a valuable pitcher for the Pirates down the stretch. Last year, Bedard reached 20 starts and 100 innings for the first time since he was an Oriole back in 2007. He's done it again this year and there's reason to believe he's finally moved past the debilitating injuries that derailed his promising career. Bedard has been no picture of health of late, but if I were a betting man, I'd lay my money down.
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