Today was the deadline for teams to add players to their 25-man roster in order for them to be eligible for the playoffs. Obviously, guys on the DL don't count, so there's some leeway here, but basically, what you see is what you get. So, the question is, did the Pirates get it right?
Today the Pirates added Kyle McPherson to their bullpen and Alex Presley to their outfield mix. In corresponding moves, Chase d'Arnaud was optioned to High-A Bradenton and Jeff Clement was outrighted there after clearing waivers. This means Clement was removed from the 40-man roster and would have to be added again before being recalled. The Pirates now have two open spots on their 40-man roster. Sending them to A-ball allows them to be recalled as early as Monday (rather than wait the usual 10 days) since Bradenton's season ends on Sunday.
Early indications were that Jeff Locke would also join the team this weekend as a starter once rosters expanded on September 1. Presumably, others would follow: Justin Wilson, Eric Fryer, etc. So, given what we know, how did the Pirates do? I think the general consensus is OK. Adding Presley makes sense as Jose Tabata is a giant question mark and more still needs to be seen from Starling Marte to be sure he's worth a playoff roster spot. Two of those three will likely be on the roster if the Pirates secure a playoff spot.
The McPherson move is solid, but a little puzzling. McPherson had a scoreless appearance in his first taste of the big-leagues earlier this month. He's a guy that could pitch either out of the bullpen or as a starter down the stretch. He's got nice swing-and-miss stuff and eventually profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Frankly, I'd rather have seen that spot go to Justin Wilson. Presumably, the Pirates feel that they're OK with lefties in the pen now that they've claimed Hinsanori Takahashi off of waivers, but Wilson profiles as a potential late-inning guy with a hard fastball and electric movement. Command has been an issue in the past, but he's looked sharp this year and also had a nice scoreless stint in the majors, striking out the side against the Padres. The other obvious choice would have been Bryan Morris. Folks have been clamoring for his call-up for ages now and he's another hard-throwing bullpen guy who could fill the void left by Brad Lincoln. In other words, a guy who could go multiple innings when needed or come in to put out a fire. He's an excellent strikeout guy and would have been a nice weapon come playoff time.
The other move I would have considered is adding Jeff Locke to the rotation now so he'd be eligible for the playoffs. Teams don't always need a fifth starter come playoff time, but he could also be used out of the pen. He had a couple scoreless appearances out of the pen in the majors earlier this year. I would have advocated dumping Kevin Correia in favor of Locke. Locke's a better pitcher right now and has plenty more upside. He probably profiles as a number four starter in the future. I doubt it will happen, but I'm still holding out hope that the Pirates make this move after they take on the Brewers tonight.
Overall, the Pirates improved their potential playoff roster with their moves today. I think Clement and d'Arnaud were smart call-ups at the time, but neither one of those guys belongs on a playoff roster, even taking into account d'Arnaud's ability as a baserunner. Presley gives the Pirates another outfield option and McPherson could be a nice addition to the pen. I just wish more consideration would have been given to guys like Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris who may actually profile as relievers long-term and who have electric stuff. Correia has kept the team in games this year, but he's nearing the end of his usefulness, especially with so many better potential options still sitting at AAA. Regardless, the focus now needs to turn away from roster construction and on to getting ready for a dogfight for one of the few available playoff spots.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Is Jason Grilli the key to the Pirates 'pen?
13.78
It's one of the most surprising numbers associated with the Pirates bullpen this season. That's the K/9 rate of 35-year-old set-up man Jason Grilli, fourth best among all qualified relievers in MLB. His other numbers are pretty great, too: a 2.20 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a .180 BA against and a 4.41 K/BB ratio. He's been a 1.2 WAR player. By comparison, NL saves leader Joel Hanrahan has a WAR of 0.2.
There's no question Grilli has been a key cog in one of the National League's best bullpens. He has nailed down an 8th-inning role that was in flux for much of last season. The Pirates have lost only one game this season when leading after seven innings, a .984 winning percentage. There's a reason why fans clamor for Grilli to enter the game in any high-leverage situation. It's not a stretch to say he's the best set-up man in the league.
If the Pirates are going to make the playoffs, it's going to be on the back of their bullpen. Look at last night's game against the Cardinals, for example. If you get the game to the bullpen with a lead after six innings, the guys in the 'pen will take care of the rest. The Pirates trail only Cincinnati in terms of bullpen ERA this season. And the key to the pen, the stabilizing factor between the starters and the closer, has been Grilli.
It's one of the most surprising numbers associated with the Pirates bullpen this season. That's the K/9 rate of 35-year-old set-up man Jason Grilli, fourth best among all qualified relievers in MLB. His other numbers are pretty great, too: a 2.20 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a .180 BA against and a 4.41 K/BB ratio. He's been a 1.2 WAR player. By comparison, NL saves leader Joel Hanrahan has a WAR of 0.2.
There's no question Grilli has been a key cog in one of the National League's best bullpens. He has nailed down an 8th-inning role that was in flux for much of last season. The Pirates have lost only one game this season when leading after seven innings, a .984 winning percentage. There's a reason why fans clamor for Grilli to enter the game in any high-leverage situation. It's not a stretch to say he's the best set-up man in the league.
If the Pirates are going to make the playoffs, it's going to be on the back of their bullpen. Look at last night's game against the Cardinals, for example. If you get the game to the bullpen with a lead after six innings, the guys in the 'pen will take care of the rest. The Pirates trail only Cincinnati in terms of bullpen ERA this season. And the key to the pen, the stabilizing factor between the starters and the closer, has been Grilli.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Is Pedro Alvarez having a successful season?
Last night, Pedro Alvarez let loose his prodigious power with two monster home runs. The first was an opposite-field shot that cleared the Northside Notch in the deepest part of the park. Deciding that was not impressive enough, he followed it up with a herculean shot to right-center that went a stunning 469 feet. That mammoth blast was the longest home run by a Pirate in PNC Park history and, with it, Alvarez joined the 25-homer club for the first time in his young career.
Despite the fireworks, Pedro's season has been something of an enigma. It's not an understatement to say he's been one of the streakiest hitters in all of baseball. Alvarez was flat out of the gate only to get hot in mid-June. From there he went on an incredible tear until mid-July, when his production once again fell off a cliff. Recently, though he's been swinging the bat well and his 2-punch statement in an incredibly important game for the Pirates last night has been the pinnacle of his late-season resurgence. What are we to make of his overall season, then?
Well, a dream season for Pedro would be something like a .270 average and 35 homers. A realistic breakout, then, might look something like a .250 season average and 25 homers. That, of course, is nearly identical to his current season totals. It's hard not to consider that a success. His overall line is .247/.327/.484 with 25 HR, 67 RBI and an impressive isolated power number of .237. The latter number is good for fifth in the National League. He's been a 3.0 WAR player this season according to Fangraphs. That's all fairly impressive and I'm sure the Pirates are happy with the overall production. Sure, the 31.8% K rate is a concern, but he's always going to strike out a lot. Pedro's value will always be judged by his power numbers and his run production and, for the most part, he's been strong in those areas this season. It's also true that the Pirates have played their best baseball when Pedro's been on, so hopefully this recent hot streak will translate into wins for the Bucs as they fight for their first playoff spot in 20 years.
Despite the fireworks, Pedro's season has been something of an enigma. It's not an understatement to say he's been one of the streakiest hitters in all of baseball. Alvarez was flat out of the gate only to get hot in mid-June. From there he went on an incredible tear until mid-July, when his production once again fell off a cliff. Recently, though he's been swinging the bat well and his 2-punch statement in an incredibly important game for the Pirates last night has been the pinnacle of his late-season resurgence. What are we to make of his overall season, then?
Well, a dream season for Pedro would be something like a .270 average and 35 homers. A realistic breakout, then, might look something like a .250 season average and 25 homers. That, of course, is nearly identical to his current season totals. It's hard not to consider that a success. His overall line is .247/.327/.484 with 25 HR, 67 RBI and an impressive isolated power number of .237. The latter number is good for fifth in the National League. He's been a 3.0 WAR player this season according to Fangraphs. That's all fairly impressive and I'm sure the Pirates are happy with the overall production. Sure, the 31.8% K rate is a concern, but he's always going to strike out a lot. Pedro's value will always be judged by his power numbers and his run production and, for the most part, he's been strong in those areas this season. It's also true that the Pirates have played their best baseball when Pedro's been on, so hopefully this recent hot streak will translate into wins for the Bucs as they fight for their first playoff spot in 20 years.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Why are the Pirates so afraid of youth?
It's ironic that a team that has relied so heavily on the youth movement and home-grown talent would suddenly become allergic to rookies. After surprising rookie reliever Jared Hughes and his 48 appearances, the next highest total of any Pirates rookie this season is 30. That mark belongs to the long-forgotten Matt Hague. Sure the rookie position players haven't exactly inspired much confidence. The Bucs just haven't gotten much production out of the likes of Hague, Yamaico Navarro and Gorkys Hernandez. Still, Starling Marte showed real potential before landing on the DL. Plus, AAA is stocked with a bevy of arms ready to contribute at the Big League level.
Pitchers Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson and Kyle McPherson all had impressive, albeit brief, debuts, but they've been relegated mostly to fill-in duty for a game or two at a time. Indianapolis reliever Bryan Morris was called up for a day and didn't even get a sniff of game action. Instead, those major league bullpen spots have been filled by veteran journeymen like Juan Cruz and Chad Qualls. Likewise, the starting rotation has been clogged by Kevin Correia, Wandy Rodriguez and the recently-released Erik Bedard.
But Bedard's release presents a new opportunity to let the youth movement continue. As the veterans fade down the stretch, the opportunity is there for the Pirates to fill Bedard's spot with one of the more exciting AAA options. Wouldn't the rotation look better with a young lefty with hit-and-miss stuff like Jeff Locke than with another stretch of mediocrity by Correia. At the very least, call up Bryan Morris and let him fill a Brad Lincoln-type role if you're dead-set on putting Correia back in the rotation. It's time for this front office to stop thinking veterans are necessarily the solution when there are young, talented arms ready to contribute at Indy. Nothing against Hisanori Takahashi, but couldn't that bullpen role be filled just as easily with Justin Wilson? Their current strategy has them on the outside of the playoff race looking in. There's not much more to lose and a great deal to gain by seeing what kind of spark some of these young arms could provide.
Pitchers Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson and Kyle McPherson all had impressive, albeit brief, debuts, but they've been relegated mostly to fill-in duty for a game or two at a time. Indianapolis reliever Bryan Morris was called up for a day and didn't even get a sniff of game action. Instead, those major league bullpen spots have been filled by veteran journeymen like Juan Cruz and Chad Qualls. Likewise, the starting rotation has been clogged by Kevin Correia, Wandy Rodriguez and the recently-released Erik Bedard.
But Bedard's release presents a new opportunity to let the youth movement continue. As the veterans fade down the stretch, the opportunity is there for the Pirates to fill Bedard's spot with one of the more exciting AAA options. Wouldn't the rotation look better with a young lefty with hit-and-miss stuff like Jeff Locke than with another stretch of mediocrity by Correia. At the very least, call up Bryan Morris and let him fill a Brad Lincoln-type role if you're dead-set on putting Correia back in the rotation. It's time for this front office to stop thinking veterans are necessarily the solution when there are young, talented arms ready to contribute at Indy. Nothing against Hisanori Takahashi, but couldn't that bullpen role be filled just as easily with Justin Wilson? Their current strategy has them on the outside of the playoff race looking in. There's not much more to lose and a great deal to gain by seeing what kind of spark some of these young arms could provide.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Can Alex Dickerson stop the revolving door at first?
Today, we found out that Pirates farmhand Alex Dickerson was named the Florida State League Player of the Year. In his first full season, he hit .299/.358/.454 for the Bradenton Marauders with 12 HR and 88 RBI. He even added 12 SB for good measure.
Dickerson was the 2011 third round pick of the Pirates. He was considered a Top-50 draft talent, but fell to the third round due to concerns about his back. He has good power to all fields and projects as a potential 30-home run talent in the majors. He's got good plate patience and generally keeps strikeouts to a minimum. He played mostly in the outfield in college, but his lack of range and his injury history led the Pirates to move him to 1B. The former Big Ten Triple Crown winner is valued primarily for his bat, though. His award-winning season with Bradenton follows a nice showing in short-season ball in 2011. There, he managed a .313/.393/.493 line in 150 AB.
The Pirates have struggled to develop hitters of late, especially power hitters. Their revolving door at first base is well-known, too. The Pirates have penciled different names into their opening day lineup for four consecutive years. Since the departure of Adam LaRoche, we've seen the likes of Jeff Clement, Lyle Overbay, Garrett Jones, Steve Pearce, Derrek Lee, Matt Hague, Casey McGehee and Gaby Sanchez. There are a few promising first base prospects in the system (most notably Matt Curry and Jose Osuna), but none have the realistic potential of a guy like Dickerson. Hopefully, in a couple of years, the Pirates will be able to plug Dickerson's name into the lineup on a daily bases.
Dickerson was the 2011 third round pick of the Pirates. He was considered a Top-50 draft talent, but fell to the third round due to concerns about his back. He has good power to all fields and projects as a potential 30-home run talent in the majors. He's got good plate patience and generally keeps strikeouts to a minimum. He played mostly in the outfield in college, but his lack of range and his injury history led the Pirates to move him to 1B. The former Big Ten Triple Crown winner is valued primarily for his bat, though. His award-winning season with Bradenton follows a nice showing in short-season ball in 2011. There, he managed a .313/.393/.493 line in 150 AB.
The Pirates have struggled to develop hitters of late, especially power hitters. Their revolving door at first base is well-known, too. The Pirates have penciled different names into their opening day lineup for four consecutive years. Since the departure of Adam LaRoche, we've seen the likes of Jeff Clement, Lyle Overbay, Garrett Jones, Steve Pearce, Derrek Lee, Matt Hague, Casey McGehee and Gaby Sanchez. There are a few promising first base prospects in the system (most notably Matt Curry and Jose Osuna), but none have the realistic potential of a guy like Dickerson. Hopefully, in a couple of years, the Pirates will be able to plug Dickerson's name into the lineup on a daily bases.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Are the PIrates a bad baserunning team?
It seems like every time I tune into the Pirates of late, somebody is making an out on the basepaths. In particular, speedsters Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen have been caught stealing with regularity and Garrett Jones has given a new face to the popular acronym TOOTBLAN (Thrown Out On Base Like A Nincompoop). But, what do the actual statistics tell us?
Well, it's a mixed bag really. Pittsburgh is really bad in the stolen base department. They are last in the NL in steals (56), first in caught stealing (43) and last in stolen base percentage (57%). They are also second in the league in being picked off when there's a stolen base opportunity (1.29%). They're pretty good at taking the extra base (43%), but last in the league in scoring from first on a double (21 times). Remarkably, they are the best in the league in outs on base (30), meaning they don't run into outs much aside from being picked off or caught stealing.
All in all, the Pirates are not as bad on the basepaths as I thought. They are woeful in the stolen base department, and that needs to change; but they aren't making a lot of careless outs beyond that. I feel like I've seen my share of them, but it's likely that the bad ones just stick out in my memory. Plus, you never think about baserunning when the players do what they're supposed to do. Beyond that, the Pirates are pretty good at taking the extra base, tied for fourth in the NL in fact. Hopefully, any missteps the Pirates have made lately are just drops in the bucket. Things better settle down soon, though, as the Pirates need to be firing on all cylinders if they're going to remain in the Wild Card race.
Well, it's a mixed bag really. Pittsburgh is really bad in the stolen base department. They are last in the NL in steals (56), first in caught stealing (43) and last in stolen base percentage (57%). They are also second in the league in being picked off when there's a stolen base opportunity (1.29%). They're pretty good at taking the extra base (43%), but last in the league in scoring from first on a double (21 times). Remarkably, they are the best in the league in outs on base (30), meaning they don't run into outs much aside from being picked off or caught stealing.
All in all, the Pirates are not as bad on the basepaths as I thought. They are woeful in the stolen base department, and that needs to change; but they aren't making a lot of careless outs beyond that. I feel like I've seen my share of them, but it's likely that the bad ones just stick out in my memory. Plus, you never think about baserunning when the players do what they're supposed to do. Beyond that, the Pirates are pretty good at taking the extra base, tied for fourth in the NL in fact. Hopefully, any missteps the Pirates have made lately are just drops in the bucket. Things better settle down soon, though, as the Pirates need to be firing on all cylinders if they're going to remain in the Wild Card race.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Why should you be happy about the Clement callup?
It's seems odd I would be so happy about this, doesn't it? After all, we're talking about Jeff Clement. The same Jeff Clement that crashed and burned as the Pirates starting first baseman back in 2010. The same Jeff Clement that struggled to stay above the Mendoza line and somehow managed only 12 RBI despite seven home runs. His OBP was .237; his OPS was .605. So, why on earth should I be happy about his call-up?
Well, a few reasons actually. First, he's been really good at AAA this year. He has 16 HR, 57 RBI and sports an .825 OPS. He's also been healthy all season, which is something you could not say at just about any other time in his career. He deserves a shot and could be nice left-handed power option off the bench.
And that's the second reason: he's a left-handed power hitter. Who is he replacing? A light-hitting, right-handed utility player with recent off-the-field problems. I'd much rather be giving Jeff Clement one more shot after he's worked his way back from injuries and disappointments than keeping a guy like Yamaico Navarro who's had no success at all at the major-league level this year and was arrested earlier this season for a DUI.
That brings me to my third and most important reason I love this seemingly insignificant move: it restores my faith in Neal Huntington. OK, so maybe that's a bit over the top; but after seriously bungling the bullpen situation in San Diego, Daniel McCutchen is back in the minors where he belongs and Huntington has now made a move which should improve the bench. Here's something you probably didn't know: until the Clement call-up, the Pirates did not have a left-handed hitter on the bench. None. If you consider Garrett Jones the starter at 1st and Travis Snider the starter in RF, then your bench consists of Gaby Sanchez, Michael McKenry, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and, now, Jeff Clement. The move does lessen the team's defensive flexibility, but Jones can play OF, Harrison can play multiple positions and Mercer can play either middle-infield position. This team really needs to start hitting better and driving the ball and calling up Clement could really help.
Look, I know this move is not going to set the sports world on fire, but it's a shrewd move that should upgrade the Pirates bench. Many of us have been ragging on Huntington for his bullpen construction, so it's only right to applaud a move like this that should be a step toward putting the best 25 guys on the field.
Well, a few reasons actually. First, he's been really good at AAA this year. He has 16 HR, 57 RBI and sports an .825 OPS. He's also been healthy all season, which is something you could not say at just about any other time in his career. He deserves a shot and could be nice left-handed power option off the bench.
And that's the second reason: he's a left-handed power hitter. Who is he replacing? A light-hitting, right-handed utility player with recent off-the-field problems. I'd much rather be giving Jeff Clement one more shot after he's worked his way back from injuries and disappointments than keeping a guy like Yamaico Navarro who's had no success at all at the major-league level this year and was arrested earlier this season for a DUI.
That brings me to my third and most important reason I love this seemingly insignificant move: it restores my faith in Neal Huntington. OK, so maybe that's a bit over the top; but after seriously bungling the bullpen situation in San Diego, Daniel McCutchen is back in the minors where he belongs and Huntington has now made a move which should improve the bench. Here's something you probably didn't know: until the Clement call-up, the Pirates did not have a left-handed hitter on the bench. None. If you consider Garrett Jones the starter at 1st and Travis Snider the starter in RF, then your bench consists of Gaby Sanchez, Michael McKenry, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and, now, Jeff Clement. The move does lessen the team's defensive flexibility, but Jones can play OF, Harrison can play multiple positions and Mercer can play either middle-infield position. This team really needs to start hitting better and driving the ball and calling up Clement could really help.
Look, I know this move is not going to set the sports world on fire, but it's a shrewd move that should upgrade the Pirates bench. Many of us have been ragging on Huntington for his bullpen construction, so it's only right to applaud a move like this that should be a step toward putting the best 25 guys on the field.
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