History was made yesterday as part of the trade that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from the Marlins to the Tigers. In that deal, the teams exchanged a pair of draft picks. That was the first trade of draft picks in Major League Baseball history.
One of the unique things about the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is an annual lottery for small-market and low-revenue teams. This lottery involves six draft picks immediately following the first round of the amateur draft and six draft picks immediately following the second round. The odds of winning a pick are based on the team's previous year's record. In this year's draft, the Pirates got the second pick in the compensation round following the first round of the draft. Under the new CBA rules, this pick is able to be traded during the season before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.
The Pirates' pick would carry considerable value, but there's no telling exactly what that value would be. There's no history of trading picks, so the market hasn't established for picks yet. The trade yesterday involved exchanging picks in order to sweeten the pot for the Tigers in case Anibal Sanchez does not sign an extension and becomes a two-month rental. It's probably easier to gauge the difference in value between picks rather than the value of a pick in exchange for talent on the market.
Neal Huntington has said he is not looking to trade his team's pick, but is willing to if he feels another team meets the internal value the Pirates have set on it. He acknowledges, however, that he's not really sure how the industry values the pick at present. There are two reasons the team might be willing to trade their pick. The first is that it could mean the Pirates can keep one of their current minor league prospects rather than include them in a trade. Huntington is proud of his farm system and is reluctant to part with guys the team has been developing. The second reason is that the Pirates already have two first round picks next year because they were unable to sign Mark Appel by this year's signing deadline. That might mean the Pirates are more willing to move the pick than they would be in a year where they only have one first round pick.
Whatever the Pirates decide to do (and I do think they need to do something), it will be interesting to see if more of these picks will be traded and what value they will have. It's just one more thing to spice up this already enticing trade deadline.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Monday, July 23, 2012
Is Headley a good fit for the Pirates?
Buster Olney and Jon Heyman today confirmed the Pirates' continued interest in Padres third baseman Chase Headley. Olney mentions that the Padres are asking for a significant package of prospects for Headley. It's obvious why the Pirates would have interest. Headley's had a very good season, posting a line of .268/.361/.425 with 11 HR and 50 RBI. Headley has always been an underrated base stealer and he has now reached double-digit steals for four consecutive seasons. His WAR so far this year is a very good 3.6. So, why wouldn't the Pirates want him?
Well, there are a few reasons a Headley trade might not make sense. Headley is in his second year of arbitration eligibility. He was a Super-Two player, meaning he qualifies for a total of four years of arbitration. With two plus years of control, Headley's trade value is very high and a trade will likely require a top prospect from the acquiring team. In the Pirates' case, that likely means parting with either Jameson Taillon or Starling Marte. Based on Neal Huntington's recent comments, that seems like something he's unlikely to do.
The other problem is that Headley is a third basemen. Third basemen are highly coveted at this year's deadline, driving up the potential price tag. Furthermore, the Pirates already have a third basemen in Pedro Alvarez. When the Headley rumors initially started, Alvarez was in one of his prodigious slumps, but recently he has found some consistency and is a regular source of power in the Pirates lineup. Alvarez is also doing well defensively this year at third, and he has yet to make a start at another position.
So, why not move Headley? He has made plenty of starts in the OF. The problem is, he's a below-average outfielder, but an excellent third basemen. This year, he has an outstanding 6.1 UZR at third base. In 2009, he earned a -7.4 UZR in 982.1 innings in left field. The year before, his outfield UZR was -9.5. Does that sound like somebody you'd like to plug in the Pirates outfield, especially given the defensive struggles the Pirates have had recently in the OF corners?
If the Pirates did trade for Headley, they would have to play him at third base. That's the only way they could get full value out of him. That would mean a long-term move to first for Alvarez, who would also lose some of his value because of the move. The Pirates defense at first has been surprisingly good this year and a work-in-progress Alvarez during a pennant race seems like a bad idea. As much as I like Headley as a player and as much as I think getting him out of PETCO Park could only increase his value, he just doesn't seem to be a quality fit for the Pirates.
Well, there are a few reasons a Headley trade might not make sense. Headley is in his second year of arbitration eligibility. He was a Super-Two player, meaning he qualifies for a total of four years of arbitration. With two plus years of control, Headley's trade value is very high and a trade will likely require a top prospect from the acquiring team. In the Pirates' case, that likely means parting with either Jameson Taillon or Starling Marte. Based on Neal Huntington's recent comments, that seems like something he's unlikely to do.
The other problem is that Headley is a third basemen. Third basemen are highly coveted at this year's deadline, driving up the potential price tag. Furthermore, the Pirates already have a third basemen in Pedro Alvarez. When the Headley rumors initially started, Alvarez was in one of his prodigious slumps, but recently he has found some consistency and is a regular source of power in the Pirates lineup. Alvarez is also doing well defensively this year at third, and he has yet to make a start at another position.
So, why not move Headley? He has made plenty of starts in the OF. The problem is, he's a below-average outfielder, but an excellent third basemen. This year, he has an outstanding 6.1 UZR at third base. In 2009, he earned a -7.4 UZR in 982.1 innings in left field. The year before, his outfield UZR was -9.5. Does that sound like somebody you'd like to plug in the Pirates outfield, especially given the defensive struggles the Pirates have had recently in the OF corners?
If the Pirates did trade for Headley, they would have to play him at third base. That's the only way they could get full value out of him. That would mean a long-term move to first for Alvarez, who would also lose some of his value because of the move. The Pirates defense at first has been surprisingly good this year and a work-in-progress Alvarez during a pennant race seems like a bad idea. As much as I like Headley as a player and as much as I think getting him out of PETCO Park could only increase his value, he just doesn't seem to be a quality fit for the Pirates.
What will be the inscription on Bonds' HOF plaque?
While watching the touching and inspirational speech that Vicki Santo gave on Sunday in honor of her husband and newest Hall of Fame inductee Ron Santo, something struck me. This was not a speech about statistics or league leaders or even early baseball influences. This was a speech about a man, a very special man who did special things while enduring extraordinary challenges. This was a speech about Ron's character, his charitable nature and his fight to make things better. It was one of the most moving things I've ever heard.
It is worth noting, too, that Santo's HOF plaque inscription also mentions his incredible fight against diabetes and the way he positively inspired others. That brings up an interesting question: what will the HOF do when known steroid users like Barry Bonds are eventually inducted? Bonds is eligible for the first time next year. Though it's unlikely he'll make it in on the first ballot, most people think he'll eventually get in, if only because he already had put up Hall-worthy numbers by the time he juiced. I've often wondered how the HOF would handle the controversial slugger, though. Will the inscription on his plaque mention the steroid controversy? Will some mention be made of the questionable legitimacy of his numbers? I've often thought that a subtle way the Hall could make a statement would be to put him in a Pirates cap on his plaque. In other words, say that the clean, skinny Bonds that was a two-time MVP with the Pirates is the player being honored, not the hulking, Bay-area Bonds. Truthfully, I doubt folks in Pittsburgh would appreciate that.
I also doubt the Hall of Fame would do anything intentionally embarrassing or insulting. After all, they're inviting this player into their hallowed Hall. I do think, however, it's something that's too big to ignore. I can't imagine Bonds being inducted without some nod to the cloud of suspicion that hung over his later years in San Francisco. Here's one idea of how his plaque might read:
Though he has come to be identified with the "Steroid Era" of baseball, Bonds was considered by many who saw him play to be the greatest hitter of all time. He retired as the all-time leader in walks and home runs, despite considerable controversy over the legitimacy of the latter. Throughout his playing days, he earned an unprecedented seven MVP awards, was a 14-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove Award winner. During his time in Pittsburgh, he helped the Pirates to three consecutive Division Championships and later led his San Francisco Giants to four playoff appearances, including the 2002 World Series.
Buckle up, baseball fans. Over the next few years, we're in for a bumpy ride!
It is worth noting, too, that Santo's HOF plaque inscription also mentions his incredible fight against diabetes and the way he positively inspired others. That brings up an interesting question: what will the HOF do when known steroid users like Barry Bonds are eventually inducted? Bonds is eligible for the first time next year. Though it's unlikely he'll make it in on the first ballot, most people think he'll eventually get in, if only because he already had put up Hall-worthy numbers by the time he juiced. I've often wondered how the HOF would handle the controversial slugger, though. Will the inscription on his plaque mention the steroid controversy? Will some mention be made of the questionable legitimacy of his numbers? I've often thought that a subtle way the Hall could make a statement would be to put him in a Pirates cap on his plaque. In other words, say that the clean, skinny Bonds that was a two-time MVP with the Pirates is the player being honored, not the hulking, Bay-area Bonds. Truthfully, I doubt folks in Pittsburgh would appreciate that.
I also doubt the Hall of Fame would do anything intentionally embarrassing or insulting. After all, they're inviting this player into their hallowed Hall. I do think, however, it's something that's too big to ignore. I can't imagine Bonds being inducted without some nod to the cloud of suspicion that hung over his later years in San Francisco. Here's one idea of how his plaque might read:
Though he has come to be identified with the "Steroid Era" of baseball, Bonds was considered by many who saw him play to be the greatest hitter of all time. He retired as the all-time leader in walks and home runs, despite considerable controversy over the legitimacy of the latter. Throughout his playing days, he earned an unprecedented seven MVP awards, was a 14-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove Award winner. During his time in Pittsburgh, he helped the Pirates to three consecutive Division Championships and later led his San Francisco Giants to four playoff appearances, including the 2002 World Series.
Buckle up, baseball fans. Over the next few years, we're in for a bumpy ride!
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Which Upton should the Pirates target?
For weeks now, speculation has swirled around the possibility of the Pirates acquiring outfielder Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Upton is a terrific talent having a down year, but his ceiling is similar to Andrew McCutchen's and he is under team control for three more years at a reasonable salary. Acquiring him would cost the Pirates quite a bounty: likely Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, and maybe two others. The Pirates have a real opportunity this year, not just to break the 19-year streak of losing seasons, but to win the division and make the playoffs. However, after spending years building the farm system from the ground up, Neal Huntington will be reluctant to part with such highly regarded prospects that are expected to help the Pirates for years to come.
As a Plan B, so to speak, the Pirates have talked about acquiring a corner outfielder with pop as a rental. This would be a player like Carlos Quentin of San Diego Padres. Since his contract expires at the end of the season, he would likely command a lot less in a trade. The Pirates have been linked to just about every outfield bat that is potentially available. One name that hasn't come up is Justin's brother B.J. Upton. The Rays are still contenders, but might be willing to part with Upton. Like Quentin, Upton's contract expires at season's end and the Rays have mastered the art of continually stocking their farm system while simultaneously playing to win. Already we've heard names like James Shields and Ben Zobrist being kicked around as potential trade chips.
B.J. Upton would require less in a trade than his brother, yet they are having similar seasons. B.J. has posted a line of .252/.310/.392 with nine HR, 36 RBI and 16 SB. Justin's line is .273/.353/.404 with eight HR, 41 RBI and 11 SB. According to Fangraphs, B.J. has a season WAR of 1.1. Justin's, meanwhile, is 1.6. Part of that difference is attributable to defense. B.J. has -3.1 UZR this season, but that's below his career norm and in Pittsburgh he could slide out of CF and over to left, where he would be a good fit. The Pirates could bat him either leadoff or fourth, both of which are spots he's occupied in Tampa Bay's lineup this season.
Like most Pirates fans, I'd obviously prefer to have Justin on my team; but we've heard from several reporters that Pittsburgh does not match up well with Arizona for a potential deal. The Diamondbacks are looking for shortstop or third base help and the Pirates are thin there. Meanwhile, the Rays always covet pitching and that's the strength of the Pirates farm system. A package involving Jeff Locke or Justin Wilson may well entice the Rays who could lose B.J. to free agency after the season. It sounds like Neal Huntington has been inquiring about just about every bat out there, but if he hasn't already, I'd encourage him to ask about one more.
As a Plan B, so to speak, the Pirates have talked about acquiring a corner outfielder with pop as a rental. This would be a player like Carlos Quentin of San Diego Padres. Since his contract expires at the end of the season, he would likely command a lot less in a trade. The Pirates have been linked to just about every outfield bat that is potentially available. One name that hasn't come up is Justin's brother B.J. Upton. The Rays are still contenders, but might be willing to part with Upton. Like Quentin, Upton's contract expires at season's end and the Rays have mastered the art of continually stocking their farm system while simultaneously playing to win. Already we've heard names like James Shields and Ben Zobrist being kicked around as potential trade chips.
B.J. Upton would require less in a trade than his brother, yet they are having similar seasons. B.J. has posted a line of .252/.310/.392 with nine HR, 36 RBI and 16 SB. Justin's line is .273/.353/.404 with eight HR, 41 RBI and 11 SB. According to Fangraphs, B.J. has a season WAR of 1.1. Justin's, meanwhile, is 1.6. Part of that difference is attributable to defense. B.J. has -3.1 UZR this season, but that's below his career norm and in Pittsburgh he could slide out of CF and over to left, where he would be a good fit. The Pirates could bat him either leadoff or fourth, both of which are spots he's occupied in Tampa Bay's lineup this season.
Like most Pirates fans, I'd obviously prefer to have Justin on my team; but we've heard from several reporters that Pittsburgh does not match up well with Arizona for a potential deal. The Diamondbacks are looking for shortstop or third base help and the Pirates are thin there. Meanwhile, the Rays always covet pitching and that's the strength of the Pirates farm system. A package involving Jeff Locke or Justin Wilson may well entice the Rays who could lose B.J. to free agency after the season. It sounds like Neal Huntington has been inquiring about just about every bat out there, but if he hasn't already, I'd encourage him to ask about one more.
Friday, July 20, 2012
For what am I thankful?
This has been a difficult day. The unspeakable tragedy in Aurora, Colorado has left me utterly distracted, bewildered and devastated. It's easy to see why even my beloved Pirates would be far from my mind. Yet, this tragedy reminds me of what is precious to me. It reminds me to be thankful for my family, my friends, my adorable cats and yes, for baseball. So, it seems like the right time to share about what the Pirates have given me that I'm thankful for.
- The losing streak- if it's possible to be thankful for such a thing. Each year of the streak has been frustrating and painful. The more I want to give up on this franchise, the more I find myself rooting for them to win. The more the major league team struggles, the more time and energy I invest in learning about the farm system and all of the talent on its way up the pipeline. Without the losing streak, I would not have this blog, and because of the losing streak, the winning tastes all that much sweeter.
- Wagner, Clemente, Stargell and Andy Van Slyke- On the day the Willie Stargell stamp is released, I'm reminded of the rich history of this franchise. I'm reminded of the legend of The Flying Dutchman. I'm reminded of the pride and generosity of the game's greatest right fielder. I'm reminded of Pops and the We Are Fam-a-lee Pirates. After all, that's what we call my dad in my family. Most of all, I'm reminded of Andy Van Slyke. I'm reminded of my childhood and watching him play in total awe. I'm reminded of 1990 and 1991 and, yes 1992. I'm reminded of him sitting, head down, in the outfield grass that fateful day that Sid slid. I feel his pain, his frustration and his longing for something better. That image has been a source of inspiration for me. It shows how much he cared. How deeply losing hurt. He was an athlete, a competitor, an all-time-great Pirate.
- PNC Park- Truly, there's not a better ballpark on the planet. What's more, it showcases a beautiful city, rich with tradition and pride. When the park opened in 2001, my dad and I bought 20-game packages. I would not give that time at the park with my Pops back for anything in the world.
- Andrew McCutchen- I don't think there's anything that kid can't do. Seriously, in my opinion, he's the best player in the world. I say that as a fan. I have never been so excited to have someone on my team. Maybe Bonds for awhile, but I never felt like he cared. Not like this ballplayer. I wear his jersey number on my T-shirt with pride.
- Clint Hurdle- Talk about the right leader for the right team at the right time. I know that the players go out there and play, but I swear to you his boundless enthusiasm and optimism rubs off on this team. He is an impressive man. Sure, he sometimes pinch-hits Gorkys Hernandez to lead off an inning in a close game or uses Drew Sutton as a defensive replacement, but man he's a pleasure to have around.
- Winning- These past two seasons have done exactly what Hurdle has worked for: re-bonding a city with a baseball team. That means so much to me and to the City of Pittsburgh. You know, someone pointed out to me recently that nobody is really talking about the streak these days. They're talking about the playoffs. I like the sound of that.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Should the Pirates upgrade at short?
Earlier today we heard that the Pirates were one of at least three teams to inquire about shortstop Stephen Drew of the Diamondbacks (Fox Sports Link). That report was later refuted by ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter Link), but it begs the question: do the Pirates need an upgrade at short?
It's not an overstatement to say that Pirates shortstops have been atrocious offensively this season. Clint Barmes has been in an endless slump and is hitting a dismal .205/.229/.292. Overall, Pirates shortstops have a combined .515 OPS this year, worst in the majors. The problem with Stephen Drew is that he doesn't really represent any kind of offensive upgrade. He missed nearly a year with an ankle injury and has hit .192/.246/.250 since his return. Furthermore, Barmes' fielding has been good this year with a 5.4 UZR, meaning a replacement would have to be good enough to counter Barmes' defensive value.
There just aren't a lot of available trade options at short, either. Marco Scutaro might be a mild offensive improvement, but his defense has been average at best and much of his time has come at second base. Jimmy Rollins would be an improvement. He sports a 2.5 WAR and is a solid defender. His hitting would be an improvement as well, though his line of .258/.314/.417 is far below his career average. The big stumbling block with Rollins would be his contract, as he signed a hefty 3-yr/$33 million contract to re-join the Phillies this offseason. That's a lot of money for the small-market Pirates to pay an aging shortstop.
I think most Pirates fans would agree that the team could use a boost at short, but there just aren't a lot of good options right now. If you trade Barmes, you have to either rely on Jordy Mercer or Chase D'Arnaud next year or overpay for a mediocre free agent like with Barmes this year. I'm afraid to say it, but Barmes, with his quality defense, might be the most sensible option.
One possibility I'd consider: see if Toronto is willing to sell and inquire about Yunel Escobar. Toronto is only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they are in the basement of the AL East and have had a slew of bad injuries. Escobar has been a terrific defender this year, posting an impressive 7.2 UZR and, though his offensive numbers are down, his .249/.294/.335 line represents a clear upgrade over Barmes. His contract is similar to that of Barmes, so somebody would likely need to be moved in the offseason if Barmes could not be traded at the deadline or in August if he clears waivers.
It's not an overstatement to say that Pirates shortstops have been atrocious offensively this season. Clint Barmes has been in an endless slump and is hitting a dismal .205/.229/.292. Overall, Pirates shortstops have a combined .515 OPS this year, worst in the majors. The problem with Stephen Drew is that he doesn't really represent any kind of offensive upgrade. He missed nearly a year with an ankle injury and has hit .192/.246/.250 since his return. Furthermore, Barmes' fielding has been good this year with a 5.4 UZR, meaning a replacement would have to be good enough to counter Barmes' defensive value.
There just aren't a lot of available trade options at short, either. Marco Scutaro might be a mild offensive improvement, but his defense has been average at best and much of his time has come at second base. Jimmy Rollins would be an improvement. He sports a 2.5 WAR and is a solid defender. His hitting would be an improvement as well, though his line of .258/.314/.417 is far below his career average. The big stumbling block with Rollins would be his contract, as he signed a hefty 3-yr/$33 million contract to re-join the Phillies this offseason. That's a lot of money for the small-market Pirates to pay an aging shortstop.
I think most Pirates fans would agree that the team could use a boost at short, but there just aren't a lot of good options right now. If you trade Barmes, you have to either rely on Jordy Mercer or Chase D'Arnaud next year or overpay for a mediocre free agent like with Barmes this year. I'm afraid to say it, but Barmes, with his quality defense, might be the most sensible option.
One possibility I'd consider: see if Toronto is willing to sell and inquire about Yunel Escobar. Toronto is only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they are in the basement of the AL East and have had a slew of bad injuries. Escobar has been a terrific defender this year, posting an impressive 7.2 UZR and, though his offensive numbers are down, his .249/.294/.335 line represents a clear upgrade over Barmes. His contract is similar to that of Barmes, so somebody would likely need to be moved in the offseason if Barmes could not be traded at the deadline or in August if he clears waivers.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Is Neil Walker the NL's best second baseman?
Coming into today's game with the Rockies, Neil walker trailed only one NL second basement in WAR (according to Fangraphs): Aaron Hill. Walker's 3.0 WAR was just barely edged by Hill's 3.1. Walker was leading all NL second sackers with a .370 OBP and was second in OPS with a .799 mark.
And over the last two weeks, the competition is not even close. Walker's 14-day WAR is an astronomical 1.1, which dwarfs runner-up Logan Forsythe's 0.4. In fact the only player in the NL he trails over that period is, you guessed it, Andrew McCutchen. He's certainly been hitting well as witnessed by his 17-game hitting streak entering the day; but his plate patience is also improving. His 15.6% walk rate is tied for the lead with Dan Uggla. His OBP for the period is .578. That's 142 points higher than his next-closest competitor. What about power numbers? Well, Walker's slugging percentage is .789 over the past two weeks. Runner-up Rickie Weeks is 221 point behind.
All this is being done with improving defense and solid base running. Remember, this is a guy who was drafted as a catcher, groomed as a third basemen and has been learning second base on the fly the past couple of years at the major league level. Some people raised there eyebrows when Walker was nominated for a Gold Glove after last season. His stats were top-notch, but advanced metrics rated him as a negative defender. That's no longer the case. Walker's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) is a positive 2.0 this season.
There's no question Andrew McCutchen has been the Pirates' MVP this year, but with Walker hitting this well, the Pirates have a great one-two punch in their lineup. Walker is not the clear top second basemen in the league, but nobody is. A look at this year's All-Star roster (one that excluded both Walker and Hill) demonstrates that. One thing is for certain: no NL second basemen is on the same meteoric trajectory and that can only be good news for the Pirates.
And over the last two weeks, the competition is not even close. Walker's 14-day WAR is an astronomical 1.1, which dwarfs runner-up Logan Forsythe's 0.4. In fact the only player in the NL he trails over that period is, you guessed it, Andrew McCutchen. He's certainly been hitting well as witnessed by his 17-game hitting streak entering the day; but his plate patience is also improving. His 15.6% walk rate is tied for the lead with Dan Uggla. His OBP for the period is .578. That's 142 points higher than his next-closest competitor. What about power numbers? Well, Walker's slugging percentage is .789 over the past two weeks. Runner-up Rickie Weeks is 221 point behind.
All this is being done with improving defense and solid base running. Remember, this is a guy who was drafted as a catcher, groomed as a third basemen and has been learning second base on the fly the past couple of years at the major league level. Some people raised there eyebrows when Walker was nominated for a Gold Glove after last season. His stats were top-notch, but advanced metrics rated him as a negative defender. That's no longer the case. Walker's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) is a positive 2.0 this season.
There's no question Andrew McCutchen has been the Pirates' MVP this year, but with Walker hitting this well, the Pirates have a great one-two punch in their lineup. Walker is not the clear top second basemen in the league, but nobody is. A look at this year's All-Star roster (one that excluded both Walker and Hill) demonstrates that. One thing is for certain: no NL second basemen is on the same meteoric trajectory and that can only be good news for the Pirates.
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